July cross-assets performance billboard by DB -> After a mixed performance in June, July was largely positive for assets across the board
Oil stole the show, as supply cuts spurred upward pressure on prices, and the AI excitement saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extend their rally, both securing their fifth consecutive month of positive total returns. Fixed income took a hit in July, as central banks continued their hiking cycle (via HolgerZ)
2023 has been so far the mirror image of 2022 in terms of #assets returns 2022/2023/2022-23 Combined Total Returns...
$NVDA: -50%/+220%/+59% $AAPL: -26%/+52%/+12% $MSFT: -28%/+41%/+1% $SPY: -18%/+21%/-1% $QQQ: -33%/+45%/-3% $META: -64%/+165%/-5% $GOOGL: -39%/+50%/-8% $AMZN: -50%/+59%/-20% $TSLA: -65%/+117%/-24% $NFLX: -51%/+49%/-27% Source: Charlie Bilello
Asset class billboard updated as of 31/7/2023
Source: Charlie Bilello
Asset size
Source: JC Parets
Latest outlook from IMF shows expectation for global growth this year up to +3% year/year
2024 growth also at +3% … expectation is for U.S. to grow 1.8% this year, 0.2%-point increase from April; China expected to grow 5.2%, unchanged from April. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders
J.P. Morgan Kolanovic & Dubravko -> The recent rise in market cap concentration has been the steepest on record based on >60 years of history
Even narrower leadership than seen during the TMT Bubble. Source: Seth Golden
The Nasdaq-100's rebalancing in one chart from Goldman
On July 24, the weight of the largest 7 stocks in the index will be reduced from 56% to 44%. Apple and Microsoft will remain the largest constituents but their index weights will be reduced to 12% and 10%, respectively. Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia come next. Broadcom’s index weight will increase the most (by 60 basis points to 3%). It is estimated that roughly $260 billion in mutual funds and ETFs AUM are benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100 $NDX while hedge funds have an estimated $20 billion of net short exposure. Source: David Kostin thru Oktay Kavrak, CFA
Wheat futures jump 3.5% as Ukraine grain deal collapses w/Russia refuses to extend it
The move jeopardizes a key trade route from Ukraine, one of the world’s top grain and vegetable oil shippers, just as its next harvest kicks off. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
