An important remainder ahead of Trump inauguration:
"Don't let your politics get in the way of your investing. The market finds a way forward, regardless of who is in power. The market soared under both Trump and Biden, as it has under most presidents" - Peter Mallouk
The Market Cap of the largest 50 stocks relative to GDP is at 110%, the highest level in history, surpassing the peak of the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis...
Source: Barchart
As of Sept. 2024, Tesla led global BEV market share at 18%, down from 19% in 2023, per EV Volumes.
BYD rose 9 points since 2021 but may shift focus to hybrids in 2025. Legacy automakers like VW and Geely held 7-8%. In 2023, 14M EVs sold, but 84% of cars were non-electric. Source: Statista
Will we see a short-covering rally in bonds?
In case you missed it: - $TLT short interest is near RECORD highs, while... - TLT has seen massive outflows Bond market shorts are about to get squeezed. A rally in bonds could be bullish for stocks. Source: Subu Trade
Yesterday, the easing of US inflation fears sparked a huge surge higher in rate-cut expectations for 2025 (back up to 40bps from 28bps)...
Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge
BlackRock is eating the world:
Assets Under Management (AUM) grew by 15% to hit a fresh ATH at $11.55tn. BlackRock has raised $641bn in investor funds in 2024. Tally includes $390bn flowing into its ETF business overall, $226bn into equity funds, and $164bn into fixed-income. Source Bloomberg, HolgerZ
JPMorgan $JPM reported earnings
EPS of $4.84 beating expectations of $4.11 Revenue of $43.7B beating expectations of $41.7B Jamie Dimon added … “two significant risks remain. Ongoing and future spending requirements will likely be inflationary, and therefore, inflation may persist for some time. Additionally, geopolitical conditions remain the most dangerous and complicated since World War II” Source: App Economy Insights
⚠️The market is pricing in just ONE Fed rate cut for 2025. This is down from nearly 5 rate cuts expected in September.
Great Chart: @AugurInfinity, Global Markets Investor
