🔴 A very interesting chart by Jeff Weniger on X
You're looking at the highest reading on record in 1,841 weekly stock market sentiment observations from 1990 to 2025. ▶️ The inputs: the VIX volatility index + AAII survey bearish respondents + Investors Intelligence survey respondents who expect a correction. ▶️In 10 of the last 11 fear spikes, the S&P 500 went on to gains over the next 52 weeks. Returns were often large too (+31.0%, +21.0%, and so on)...
Gold +23% in 2025, leading it all (ex the VIX)
Rusty, cocoa, OJ bring up the rear Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Interesting thread on X
China just launched a new kind of trade war. "The U.S. slapped tariffs on Chinese goods. China didn’t retaliate with weapons. They retaliated with information. The kind that makes $1,000 handbags look like $10 scams. TikTok is now flooded with Chinese suppliers exposing the truth: 👜 “You want a Birkin? We make them.” 🧘♀️ “Those $100 Lululemons? They’re $6 here.” 👟 “Your Nikes? Same factory.” Made in China. Shipped to Europe. Stamped “luxury.” Sent back. Marked up 1,000%. You thought you were buying European craftsmanship. You were buying a logo, a story, and a markup fantasy. China just ripped the mask off the entire Western luxury machine and showed you the receipts. And they’re being petty with it. 😏 They’re not just selling you knockoffs. They’re showing you the exact factory. Telling you the production cost. And teaching you how to fly in, shop direct, and skip tariffs altogether.
Yesterday, hermes $RMS' market cap surpassed $LVMH's for the first time ever. $279B.
Source: Quartr
In case you missed it:
30 year Japanese government bond yields have climbed even more sharply than their US counterparts. Since April 2, Japan’s 30y yield has risen 33bps, while the US 30y yield is up 29bps over the same period. Source: (HT @bilalhafeez123), HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Asset class returns 2025 YTD
Source: Charlie Biello
Isn't it the most compelling chart for being a stock market investor?
Over the last 50 years: -US Inflation: up 6x -S&P 500 dividends: up 21x -S&P 500 total return: up 323x Over the long run, stocks trounce inflation and protect your purchasing power. Source: Peter Mallouk
This is a fascinating chart for anyone looking at the gold-to-silver ratio in a historical context - courtesy of Otavio (Tavi) Costa.
Over the past 125 years, the ratio has only spent brief moments above the 100 level — extremes like this tend not to persist for long... Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital
