The S&P 500 is down 15.3% in the first 66 trading days of 2025, the 4th worst start to a year in history.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Third consecutive close of the $VIX > 45.
That’s only happened in three bear cycles: 🔻 2008 🔻 2020 🔻 2025 Source: Alfonso De Pablos, CMT, Alfcharts
Do you remember LTCM???
According to a zerohedge article, the leverage on Treasury basis trades - which is by far the most popular trade among big hedge funds - is anywhere between 20x (Treasury Board Advisory Committee estimate) and 56x (Fed estimate); on a VaR basis LTCM was an amateur... Source: www.zerohedge.com
The $VIX closed above 50 today which is in the top 1% of historical readings.
What has happened in the past following closes above 50? S&P 500 gains over the next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years every time with above-average returns overall. Source: Charlie Bilello
Tom Lee: Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put"
Eyeing previous retests & V-bottoms $SPX Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Almost like it was scripted. Too perfect?
Source: Trend Spider
Updated version of our Q1 2025 earnings season preview, data as of April 7, 2025.
The season kicks off this Friday with all eyes on the big banks. Over 50% of S&P 500 firms mentioned tariffs in their Q4 conference calls according to FactSet, could we see that number go higher? Source: Wall Street Horizon @WallStHorizon
Has a new secular BEAR MARKET begun in the US?
The US share in the global stock market has fallen 3-4 percentage points since its November 2024 peak of 67%. This comes as the US has significantly underperformed other markets this year. Many investors are not ready for this.. Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
