Cost of hedging using outright puts nears YTD highs
Source: BofA, Mike Z.
The signal for Market Bottom?
A Follow Through Day (FTD) is a concept developed by William J. O’Neil to identify an important change in general market direction, from a definite downtrend to a new uptrend. Follow Through Days occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and on greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a FTD, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn’t make a new low. Follow Through Day Characteristics: Characteristics of a follow-through day include an index closing at least 1.7 – 2% higher on increased volume, positive behavior of leading stocks, and improved market action regarding support vs. resistance levels. The most powerful follow-through days often happen Day 4 through Day 7 of an attempted rally. Day 1 of an attempted rally is the first up day after a new low. Source: True market Leader @TmarketL, TraderLion
The S&P 500 is down 5.7% from its closing high on July 16, the largest drawdown of the year.
The index is still up 13% year-to-date including dividends. No risk, no reward. $SPX Source. Charlie Bilello
What does he know about Apple and the stock market that we don't?
Also interesting to see that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve. Source: FT, Geiger Capital
JUST IN: Over $2.9 trillion has been wiped out from major indices and stocks this morning due to growing fears of a global recession.
This is the worst day for stocks since March 16, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic fears. Source: Jacob King, Bloomberg
BREAKING >>> Intel stock, $INTC, crashed over 12% after-hours yesterday evening after reporting Q2 2024 earnings and suspending their dividend.
They reported EPS of $0.02, below expectations of $0.10, on revenue of $12.8 billion, below expectations of $12.9 billion. Intel also announced that they will be laying off 15,000 of their employees. A difficult quarter for Intel. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Since its after hours low seen just 18 hours ago, Nvidia has added $380 BILLION of market cap.
In other words, Nvidia has added as much market cap as the entire value of Costco, $COST, in 18 hours. This comes after the stock erased $1 TRILLION of market cap over the last 5 weeks. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Loose policy = Bull market
Even if the BOJ hikes a few more times, real rates will remain deeply negative, a sign of accommodate policy. Chart tracks Japan real rates & market performance ➡️ 2009 -2013: period of high real rates, languishing stock market🔻 ➡️2013-2021: BOJ floors rates, pushes rates negative and fuels stock rally ✅ ➡️ 2021-2024: inflation picks up, real rates drop even further negative, Topix rallies 50% ✅✅ Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
