Surging Tanker Rates Signal a Deepening Global Energy Crisis
Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels with little respite in sight, a sign of the growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf and increasingly complex workarounds. Earnings for supertankers sailing on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route are at a record of nearly $800,000 a day. Meanwhile, for the US Gulf to Asia run, charterers have been offering very large crude carriers at a record lump-sum fee of $29.5 million — close to $15 per barrel without considering additional war risks or fees for unexpected delays. (Bloomberg) Source: Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Saudi Crude Shipments
"Saudi Arabia’s observed crude exports last month slumped to the lowest in at least nine years" "The kingdom’s oil exports were about 3 million barrels a day in August" "Saudi ships have come under attack in the Red Sea from Yemen’s Houthi militants". Source: Bloomberg Ziad Daoud
Iran war risk is still there
Source: Bloomberg Economics
The narrative that Iran holds the upper hand is increasingly difficult to defend.
The rial is hitting fresh lows almost daily as the blockade tightens its grip on the economy, while Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is steadily weakening. Iran’s remaining leverage is its ability to drive oil prices higher—and so far, even that strategy is failing. Source: Robin Brooks
Iranian crude oil exports have plunged in August
The U.S. relies on economic pressure through its naval blockade, rather than military strikes, to coerce Tehran into a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has loaded about 260,000 barrels per day for export at its ports so far this month, a decline of more than 80% compared with 1.7 million bpd in August 2025, according to data shared Thursday by the trade intelligence firm Kpler. Source: CNBC
Abu Dhabi royal group acquires 49% stake in Trump-backed crypto bank
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan and co-investors reportedly hold a 49% stake in the holding company behind World Liberty Financial’s proposed U.S. trust bank, per WSJ. The proposed bank received preliminary approval from the Trump administration this month, bringing the Trump-backed crypto venture closer to launching its own U.S. banking operation. World Liberty Financial will run its USD1 stablecoin. This follows his previously undisclosed $500M investment in World Liberty, $263M of which went to Trump family entities. Source: WSJ
Look who is back... GS defense spending basket has been surging over the last few days on Middle East escalation...
Source: Bloomberg
President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he's seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran
Including strikes that would be bigger than the ones carried out during Operation Epic Fury. In a brief interview, Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences and stressed he hasn't made a determination yet. Trump didn't give a deadline for his decision. Two other U.S. officials confirmed no call has been made and no new orders have been given to the military. The current escalation has caused oil prices to eclipse $100 per barrel. A return to all-out war is highly unpopular in the U.S. "I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," the president said. Trump said Israel "would join in two minutes if I ask them to," but added that "we don't need anybody" to launch a new operation against Iran. He also said there would be "consequences" for Israel joining the strikes, hinting at Iranian retaliation against Israel. Source: Axios
