Look who is back... GS defense spending basket has been surging over the last few days on Middle East escalation...
Source: Bloomberg
President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he's seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran
Including strikes that would be bigger than the ones carried out during Operation Epic Fury. In a brief interview, Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences and stressed he hasn't made a determination yet. Trump didn't give a deadline for his decision. Two other U.S. officials confirmed no call has been made and no new orders have been given to the military. The current escalation has caused oil prices to eclipse $100 per barrel. A return to all-out war is highly unpopular in the U.S. "I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," the president said. Trump said Israel "would join in two minutes if I ask them to," but added that "we don't need anybody" to launch a new operation against Iran. He also said there would be "consequences" for Israel joining the strikes, hinting at Iranian retaliation against Israel. Source: Axios
Iraq just signed 48 DEALS with US companies, including with USA oil giants to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via a new pipeline
Total deals are worth over $60 BILLION, per Reuters. Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and more are also involved They also involved other industries, including healthcare, communications and infrastructure. It’s not clear when the oil deals will be able to create viable alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows. Goldman Sachs estimates that pipelines in just one country take at least two and a half years to build, and these pipelines would travel through two or more nations. Iran has sought to close the Strait repeatedly since the U.S.-Iran war began Feb. 28, causing sharp gyrations in oil and gas prices. Alternatives routes for oil will weaken Iran's main bargaining power. Will China be the big loser here? Source: AP, Al Jazeera
Update (7/12 PM): The tape keeps thinning
7 commercial crossings in the last 24h (5 E→W / 2 W→E), down from 11 yesterday and barely ~6% of the Jan–Feb run-rate. Brent's grinding higher, ~$78.79 and climbing as the closure prices in. Flow down, crude up Source: @TheTerminal Michael McDonough
Amid the sharp military escalation, odds of a full Iran blockade by July 13 jumped 50% since the last update 4 days ago
Source: zerohedge, Polymarket
Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main crude grade for Asian customers, effective August, amid weakening demand and easing tensions.
It's the largest reduction in over two decades. The sharp price cut comes as pressure grows on the world's largest crude exporter, as softer demand in Asia coincides with improving supply conditions following the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Source: The Times Of India
UAE Crude Output Nears Record High Following OPEC Exit Amid Surge In Chinese Buying
Source: zerohedge
IRAN SUSPENDS U.S. PEACE TALKS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER SIGNING DEAL
Iran has reportedly suspended the entire 60-day negotiation process with the U.S., citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon, according to Fars and Al-Mayadeen. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly postponed his planned trip to Switzerland, where U.S.-Iran talks were set to begin Friday, per Axios. Both delegations were preparing to depart before the talks were called off. Note that is barely moving Source: Coin Bureau
