A routine Dubai–Tel Aviv flight turned into a midair emergency
FlyDubai Pilot Reportedly Stabbed, Israeli News Says Incident Treated As "Full-Fledged Terror Attack". Flydubai flight FZ1073 diverted to Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, today after a reported cockpit altercation and a rapid descent. The aircraft landed safely. All passengers were safe and accounted for. Israeli officials allege that the co-pilot stabbed the captain and are investigating a possible attempted terror attack. Flydubai has confirmed an onboard incident but has not specified its nature. ⚠️ BEWARE OF FAKE NEWS AND BREAKING NEWS MOVING FASTER THAN FACTS: NOTHING IS CONFIRMED AT THIS STAGE ‼️ Source: zerohedge
And the winner of the day is... El Al stock
El Al stock is UP nearly 8% today in the news that a routine Dubai–Tel Aviv flight turned into a mid-air emergency as a full-fledged terror attack is suspected (but not confirmed).
Saudi Aramco’s President and CEO, Amin Nasser, has told Japanese media that it can restore disrupted oil operations within days and is seeking to build alternative export routes.
Source. Al Jazeera
What absorbed the Hormuz oil shock?
~35% of the gap: pipelines + new supply ~20%: inventory drawdowns ~45%: lower oil consumption The shock absorbers worked. But some are temporary, and the cushion is wearing thin. Source: McKinsey
Dear Donald, the "no war no peace" with Iran doesn't work here. You need to try something new...
Brent is closing in on $110 after Houthi strikes shut the Saudi East-West pipeline, with Riyadh’s output at a 30-year low of roughly 6m b/d and Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb presenting a two-front chokepoint risk. This is a supply shock, which means it doesn't fade on its own, and the WTI/10Y correlation has hit 0.96. Every barrel higher is a basis point in the long end. Then there's the quiet second claim on the same buyer pool: the AI build out. Hyperscaler capex now runs >100% of operating cash flow, implying ~$1.3tn of debt by 2028, with tech leading the $380bn 2026 bond supply, competing directly with Treasuries while bidding up chips, power and labor. The trade funding the equity bull is now financing the tightening cycle. Source: TME
Oman Crude pushes further above $150!
$155.14 This is the only Middle Eastern crude that does not have to pass through either the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb. That means oil prices in the rest of the world will eventually have to catch up with Oman. Source: Karel Mercx
Dubai: Traffic "near DIFC recovered to about 90% of pre-war levels before slipping in August during the school break"
"The rebound was slightly more muted around Palm Jumeirah and Dubai Marina, likely because those areas are more dependent on tourism" Source: Ziad Daoud
The energy situation in the Middle East deserves close attention
Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline was reportedly shut down on Friday following recent attacks, potentially affecting around 4 million barrels per day of export capacity. At the same time, risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could threaten flows of up to 9 million barrels per day, while the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly operating at roughly 20% of its pre-war capacity. Taken together, close to 30 million barrels per day of oil flows may be disrupted or exposed to disruption. There is some overlap between these routes, so the figures should not simply be added together. Still, against a global oil market of roughly 100 million barrels per day, the potential impact is significant. This does not necessarily mean a lasting supply shock—but it highlights how vulnerable global energy markets have become. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
