IRAN SUSPENDS U.S. PEACE TALKS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER SIGNING DEAL
Iran has reportedly suspended the entire 60-day negotiation process with the U.S., citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon, according to Fars and Al-Mayadeen. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly postponed his planned trip to Switzerland, where U.S.-Iran talks were set to begin Friday, per Axios. Both delegations were preparing to depart before the talks were called off. Note that is barely moving Source: Coin Bureau
Bloomberg's Michael Ball notes that material flows through Hormuz creates a different problem for crude,
Especially in Asia, as too much supply hits a region that has already adapted to fewer Middle East barrels. Asian refiners replaced disrupted Middle East barrels with US crude and other alternatives, cut some processing runs when prices rose and are now facing a sudden wave of Persian Gulf supply. This has led Middle Eastern crude curves to flip into bearish contango, showing the market is pricing a near-term glut rather than shortage. Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge
E4 nations including the UK, France, Germany and Italy said on Sunday the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran
in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war. Source: Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews
Two months after Trump announced that the US would provide insurance to ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the programme has not provided a single dollar of cover.
The scheme never got off the ground, according to insurance brokers, as it did not fulfil all the requirements needed for ships transiting the strait and was tied to a US naval escort for vessels, which has not been established. Source: Alexander Stahel on X, FT
An interesting Wall Street Journal story highlights the UAE’s request for a dollar swap line.
While the UAE has yet to report its end-March reserves, it entered the current situation with substantial reserves and significant holdings of liquid U.S. assets. Given the central bank’s apparent liquidity, the vast resources of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, and the country’s clear ability to borrow in dollars, it seems unlikely that the UAE would face a genuine dollar shortage. Source: Brad Setser
The IMF's growth forecasts are out.
Qatar seems to be the worst hit from the Middle East War, with recovery set for 2027. Source: Statista
Headline relief is not the same as physical normalization.
2-week ceasefire announced. Brent dropped $13 instantly. But the market is missing the real bottleneck: 172M barrels still sitting on 187 tankers in the Gulf Those cargoes must unload first — that alone could take 14+ days Qatar LNG may not restart for 2+ weeks And even then, will tankers actually enter? Iran still controls the process Saudi + UAE still have ~4M b/d shut in UBS expects only a gradual resumption through Q2 2026. A ceasefire does not equal an open Hormuz. A ceasefire does not equal restored supply. The physical dislocation is still there. Source: UBS, Qasem Al-Ali
This is what really matters for markets.
Source: BCA
