Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz
An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. Source: ChrisO_wiki
Oil product exports from the Middle East dropped 65% in March compared to February.
However, they may increase going forward. Why? Iran has recently categorized countries as: 1. Friendly; 2. Neutral; and 3. Non-friendly. Friendly countries will have free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while neutral countries will be allowed to pass with a fee. This should enable higher levels of oil and other exports from the Middle East, but possibly still less than in February. Source: BraVoCycles Newsletter
Iranian “missile hit rates against Israel have risen from 3% during the first two weeks of the war to 27%.”
Source: Carl Quintanilla
The Gulf "is now home to both the best-performing global bourse over the past month and the worst"
"Dubai’s main stock index is the world’s worst performer so far in March .. Oman’s benchmark surged to the top of global rankings" Source: Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg
The United Arab Emirates is now planning to open the Strait of Hormuz BY FORCE with OTHER allies, after President Trump said "fend for yourselves!"
WSJ
The limited flow of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now sailing exclusively through an IRGC-controlled corridor requiring specific clearance codes and an Iranian escort service.
Source: LLoyd's List
Iran Controls Passage Through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has announced it will allow “non-hostile vessels” to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but only under Iranian control and coordination. This strait normally carries ~20% of global oil, yet thousands of ships are delayed, attacked, or paying high fees. Iran may block vessels linked to the US or Israel and is drafting laws to formalize control. Beyond shipping, this move signals a financial shift, including potential moves away from the US dollar, turning the Strait into a strategic leverage point in global energy and trade. Source: Financial Times
SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyds List, PIB India, and regional briefings.
