Strong earnings with multiple contraction. That’s 2026 in a nutshell.
Source: @mattcerminaro Daily Chartbook
Could we see more pain?
Yes, on the surface, the S&P 500 looks nearly oversold, but underneath, the situation looks different with only 11% of SPX constituents being oversold. Source: TME, Bloomberg, GS
The sp500 technical picture remains pretty much the same: not pretty
We’re now well below the 200-day, with the 21-day crossing below it, a “light” death cross. RSI is at its most oversold levels since the Liberation Day panic, so a bounce is possible. But beware of the "catching a falling knife" strategy - very often a risky one. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Midterm years have been notoriously weak for the stock market. But year three of the Presidential cycle has been extremely strong…
Source: Bespoke
Institutional investors are dumping US equities at a massive pace:
Investors sold -$9.3 billion in US equities last week, bringing the 6-week total to -$13.5 billion. This comes as sales of single stocks surged to -$8.3 billion, the 4th-largest since the Great Financial Crisis. Institutional investors led with -$11 billion in outflows. Meanwhile, retail investors remained sellers for a 2nd consecutive week. Hedge funds returned to buying at +$1.8 billion, but they have sold -$4.9 billion over the last 4 weeks. Professional investors are running to the exit. Source: Global Markets Investor
The recent net selling by hedge funds is the third largest over the last decade.
Talk about risk-off! When the dust settles there will be some great opportunities. Source: Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year
(-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin.Source: Charlie Bilello
Technical corner by TME ->
$SPX S&P 500 is trading just below range lows, with the 21-day crossing the 200-day MA. The déjà vu setup remains in play for now. A slightly lower close risks accelerating the move to the downside.
