CTAs will dump stocks over the next week in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO warns Goldman Sachs.
If the market trades lower, CTAs are projected to sell more than $7 billion worth of equities.
Trump odds of winning the Presidential election are BELOW where they were after the debate…
Source: Predictit
The steepening trade continues with US 2s/30s yield spread jumping to 12bps, the highest since 2022.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
India’s dependence on Chinese imports keeps growing:
• In 2023-24 financial year China edged past the US to reclaim its position as India’s top trading partner • India’s imports from China rose by 56% since 2020, fuelling a 75% rise in country's trade deficit with China Source: Agathe Demarais, The Economist
Semi conductors Companies Ranked by Market Cap - @EricFlaningam on X:
1)The scale of the industry is incredible. Many public companies larger than $10B aren’t listed here. 2) $NVDA's performance over the last two years has to be one of the best tech stories ever. Incredible how they built their accelerated computing ecosystem for over a decade before the current infrastructure boom.
US 10y-3m yield spread has been negative for more than 440 days.
But no recession so far... Source: Kevin Gordon
Used car prices are crashing: Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years.
Over the last 35 years, there were only two times when prices of used vehicles saw a bigger drawdown: in 2004 and 2009. Overall, US wholesale prices of used vehicles have declined for 22 consecutive months. In June, average wholesale prices decreased by 8.9% year-over-year to $17,934. EV makers have been hit the hardest, with some EV prices falling over 40% since last year. The car market bubble has popped. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
The current US small caps rally seems to be mainly driven near-record exuberance in Russell 2000 ETF $IWM call options activity
(chart on the right) rather than inflows into small caps funds (chart on the left). Source: BofA, UBS
