Looks like Biden keeps the lead on Democrats nomination and this means a high probability of Trump winning Presidential election
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
A good chart on how narrow the US market has been this year:
Source: Hidden Value Gems This was actually made originally by Grant Hawkridge https://lnkd.in/e8nwsZYA
Biden sent this letter to congressional Democrats on Monday morning saying he is 'firmly committed to staying in this race.'
Here is the reaction (this is a 5-minute chart of Predictit betting that Biden is the nominee) Source: James Bianco, Bianco Research
US GDP growth estimates are plummeting: The most recent Atlanta Fed estimate for real US GDP quarterly growth in Q2 2024 is down to 1.7%.
This estimate is down from 4.2% seen in mid-May and from 2.2% seen on June 28th. If this estimate turns out to be correct it will be the 2nd consecutive quarter of GDP growth below 2.0% after Q1 2024 GDP of 1.4%. Is the US economy finally slowing down? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Percentage of Congress over the age of 70
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The combined annual revenue of the 5 highest earnings 🇺🇸 companies is higher than the GDP of Brazil, Italy and Canada
Top 5 US companies based on Revenue (TTM) 🥇 Walmart $WMT: $657.3B 🥈 Amazon $AMZN: $590.7B 🥉 Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B: $410.9B 4) Apple $AAPL: $381.6B 5) UnitedHealth $UNH: $379.5B Source: Evan
A remainder that US small caps have been lagging meaningfully during the current bull market
Source: MicrocapClub
US GOVERNMENT SPENDS MONEY AS IF THERE IS A CRISIS:
US government spending as a % of GDP is now ~43%, in line with THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. This is just 1 % below World War II levels. Only the COVID crisis saw higher expenditures as a share of GDP of 54%... Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
