The US equities market explained in one image
Source: Trend Spider
Latest US jobs numbers show economic momentum keeps cooling: Non-farm-payrolls rose by 206k jobs in June, ahead of 190k forecast.
However, 2 months net revisions were NEGATIVE with -110k. Moreover, government employment rose by a whopping 70k while PRIVATE employment with 136k was below estimates. Unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0% due to higher labor participation rate. Wage rose 3.9% YoY in line w/estimates. Bottom-line: these numbers seem to confirm our thesis that the US job market is NORMALIZING hence reinforcing the disinflation trend which will ultimately enable policy makers to NORMALIZE. More to come from our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud... stay tuned... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The Economist in October 2020 (left) vs. today (right)
This week in The Economist: "Why Biden must withdraw - The president and his party portray themselves as the saviours of democracy. Their actions say otherwise"
📢 China's public spending on scientific research is now above America's
• Chinese researchers focus mostly on applied fields, whereas US still leads on basic research • Beijing has precise priorities: AI, quantum, chips, neuroscience, genetics, biotech, deep space/oceans Source: Agathe Demarais, OECD
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi has sold her Tesla, $TSLA, position worth ~$500,000.
She has also purchased an addition $1.2 million of Nvidia, $NVDA, and $5 million of Broadcom, $AVGO. Nancy Pelosi made millions buying nvidia, $NVDA, over the last two years. It appears that she is now doubling down on semiconductors stocks. Are chip stocks setting up for favorable legislation and/or US support ⁉ Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Another new low for the Citigroup US surprises index on the back of poor macro numbers this week (ADP employment, ISM services, etc.)
Source: Bloomberg, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT, CFTe, MSTA
Bets of a Kamala Harris nomination are exploding
Source: Bloomberg
BREAKING: US consumers' average 5-10 year inflation expectations have spiked to 5.6%, the highest in 31 years.
This measure increased by ~2 percentage points in just a few months. By comparison, median inflation expectations are around 3%, in-line with the readings seen over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, CPI inflation has been above 3% for 38 consecutive months, the longest streak since the 1990s. Will inflation stay a major issue in H2 2024? Source: The Kobeissi letter, Bloomberg
