The US Treasury market remains volatile
The 10-year note yield is now up over 20 basis points in since Friday's intraday low. That's 20 basis points in a matter of hours without any material news? Or is it a Trump effect? UST over-supply? Whatever the reason, for the first time in almost 5 weeks, the 10-year note yield is set to break above 4.50%... Source: The Kobeissi letter
US Poll: Majority believe Biden's cognitive health doesn't qualify him for presidency
A new CBS News/You Gov poll reveals that 72% of Americans doubt Biden's "mental and cognitive health" meets the standards required for the presidency. Of those surveyed, 46% of Democratic voters believe Biden should consider withdrawing from the race due to health concerns. The poll also asked respondents about former President Donald Trump's fitness for office, with 50% expressing confidence in his mental and cognitive abilities, while 49% disagreed. Source: https://www.albawaba.com/
Good to know...
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Q2 US earnings calendar by The Transcript
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Thursday night US presidential election debate in one image
Source: USA today
US yield curve steepens sharply after US presidential debate w/PredictIt’s live betting odds have jumped in Trump’s favor to almost 60%
US 2s/10s spread jumps by 7bps to -36bps. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BREAKING: US new home sales plummeted -11.3% month-over-month to 619,000 in May, well below the estimated -0.2% decrease.
This was the largest decline since September 2022 when new home sales fell by ~14%. Year-over-year sales dropped by a whopping 16.5%, the most since February 2023. This also follows the Pending Home Sales decline to their lowest level since April 2020. Meanwhile, the supply of homes available for sale rose to 481,000, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US housing market is slowing. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
American excess savings reached $2.1 trillion in 2021, but they ran dry months ago.
The pandemic savings cushions that helped Americans weather high prices in recent years have worn through, contributing to a loss of consumer firepower that’s rippling through the economy. Delinquencies are rising. Executives are flagging caution among shoppers in recent earnings calls, and retail sales barely increased in May after falling the month prior. Economists forecast solid inflation-adjusted consumer spending in data out Friday, helped by lower gasoline prices, but that would follow an outright decline in April. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
