What is the exposure of German banks to us commercial real estate?
According to Moody's, Aareal Bank & Deutsche Pfandbriefbank have the largest exposure compared w/their capital levels. The shares of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, which is the most shorted in Germany, have recently lost a quarter of their value. In case of Deutsche Bank, there is a gap between banks' exposure to US specialized lending and exposure to banks' US CRE book as DB engages to a material extent in other asset-based or project lending that would also qualify as specialised lending, according to Moody's. Source: Dekabank, HolgerZ
The US equity market is rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being its most concentrated in history, DB has calculated.
The top 5 stocks Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet & Amazon account for 25% of mkt cap of the S&P 500. source : holgerz
India is one of the few markets that is outperforming the US rather handily
Source: Bloomberg
Jamie Dimon believes U.S. debt is the ‘most predictable crisis’ in history
And experts say it could cost Americans their homes, spending power and national security - Fortune Source: Markets & Mayhem
On CRE
Source: Bloomberg
The U.S. Dollar is currently used in more than 48% of international payment transactions, the highest level in more than a decade.
USD isn’t going away anytime soon 🇺🇸. Source: Barchart, Macrobond
The rally on Wall Street has meant that US equities now have a weighting of ~70% in the popular MSCI World index.
That is a record. The risk is correspondingly high if US equities go out of fashion. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The us equity rally is being supported by better NTM earnings as well as multiple expansion, the latter driven mostly by Tech.
Source: Barclays, TME
