🚨 February numbers are in and the Mag 7 are now the 𝗙𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝟰 year to date
Nvidia , Meta , Microsoft and Amazon driving all the gains while Apple , Google and Tesla fall out of the 7. Source: John Haslett, CA(SA), FRM
Today's report unveiled the largest positive surprise in US personal income since the surge in consumer prices began in 2021
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
More evidence of a decline in US Inflation...
The PCE Price Index moved down to 2.4% in January, its lowest level since February 2021. Cycle peak was 7% in June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
When you invest in US debt, think twice...
In Q4 2023, nominal GDP grew by 3.2% according to data on Wednesday. This would mean a $334.5 billion increase in nominal GDP. Meanwhile, over the same time period the US added $834.2 billion of debt. In other words, it cost us $2.50 of debt for every $1.00 of GDP last quarter, according to Zerohedge. As Fed Chair Powell recently said, "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path." What's the long term plan here? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
US financial conditions are very easy compared to Fed Funds...
Too easy? Bear in mind what the FOMC said in the Minutes on Wednesday: "Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall." Could this lead the fed to keep rates higher for longer? How long will the market be able to shrug off high rates and higher bond yields? Source: www.zerohedge
To the Moon: Intuitive Machines successfully landed its Odysseus lunar lander, at 6:11 p.m. ET on Feb. 22, making it the first privately (non-government) built spacecraft to achieve this feat.
The US hasn't had a moon landing — manned or unmanned — since 1972. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Four Years Since COVID
Sunday, 2/19/24 marked the four-year anniversary of the US stock market's peak closing level just before COVID hit in 2020. February 19th, 2020 was an unremarkable trading day that saw the S&P 500 rally about 0.5% and gold hit its highest level since 2013. At that point, the novel coronavirus was taking a serious toll on China, but there was still only slight anxiety and nervousness about it having a major impact on US shores. Below is a list of the best performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since then. At the top of the list is energy-drink maker Celsius (CELH), which is far ahead of the pack with a gain of 3,030%. source : bespoke
US yields surged after terrible 20Y Auction with biggest tail on record.
The high yield of 4.595% was well above last month's 4.423% but worse, it tailed the yields that prevailed when it was issued (4.562%) by a whopping 3.30bps, which was the biggest tail on record for the tenor since the 20Y auction was introduced in May 2020. The bid to cover tumbled to 2.39, down from 2.53, well below the 2.59 six-auction average, and was the lowest since August 2022. The internals were even uglier, with Indirects awarded just 59.08%, lower than last month's 62.16%, sharply lower than recent average of 68.2% and the lowest since May 2021. And with Directs taking down 19.7%, Dealers were left holding 21.2%, the most since May 2021. Overall this was a very ugly auction, perhaps one can attribute it to nerves from today's FOMC Minutes which however should be a non-event as they are already rather dated and do not reflect the latest reflationary spike. In any case, yields promptly spiked with the 10Y rising as high as 4.325% before retracing some of the move, which also sent stocks sliding briefly before recovering. Source: www.zerohedge.com
