New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit Report
Total household debt climbed by $212 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve said in its latest quarterly Household Debt and Credit Report. Amid the rise in debt, delinquency rates and the transition into troubled status were both higher. source : cnbc
Market mood
Source: hedgeye
The short term gap is huge. NASDAQ futs vs US 10 year (inv), 10 min 3 mths chart.
Source: TME
US Earnings season UPDATE
Q4 GAAP EPS +16% higher than a year ago after 46% of S&P 500 companies have reported. Note that Beats are rewarded like never before. We have seen sharp moves for positive surprises led by large cap constituents. Source. Factset, TME
A Los Angeles office building just sold for 52% less than its price five years ago.
The office building was originally purchased in 2018 for $92.5 million. Now, it sold for $44.7 million even after over $11 million in renovations. Just weeks ago, the Aon Center in downtown LA sold for $147.8 million, 45% less than its previous purchase price in 2014. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year.
Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion. This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024. That's nearly ONE THIRD of all outstanding US federal debt right now. All while the Fed is expected to start cutting rates, making buying these bonds less attractive. Who's going to fund all of this debt? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Apollo
Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
While the US economy remains very resilient, many consumers continue to struggle and need to find ways to keep their purchasing power
Pay rent or parents
