US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg
Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a us economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain. Bets on lower rates coming soon were so prevalent a few weeks ago that Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly cautioned that policymakers were unlikely to be in position to cut as of March. Less than three weeks later, traders have not only removed March as a possibility but May also looks improbable, and even conviction about the June Fed meeting is wavering, swaps trading shows.
China and US elections reiterate the durability of the onshoring theme.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Will we soon see some relief on US wage inflation?
The US just experienced the largest population increase in a year ever. Mostly driven by the surge in immigration. Source: Tavi Costa
We're currently witnessing the longest period of U.S. equity outperformance in history.
But there's a cycle to everything, and international diversification is perhaps more important today than ever before. Source: Peter Mallouk
US Inflation – Where It Is And Isn’t
Source : Yahoo Finance
What is the exposure of German banks to us commercial real estate?
According to Moody's, Aareal Bank & Deutsche Pfandbriefbank have the largest exposure compared w/their capital levels. The shares of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, which is the most shorted in Germany, have recently lost a quarter of their value. In case of Deutsche Bank, there is a gap between banks' exposure to US specialized lending and exposure to banks' US CRE book as DB engages to a material extent in other asset-based or project lending that would also qualify as specialised lending, according to Moody's. Source: Dekabank, HolgerZ
The US equity market is rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being its most concentrated in history, DB has calculated.
The top 5 stocks Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet & Amazon account for 25% of mkt cap of the S&P 500. source : holgerz
India is one of the few markets that is outperforming the US rather handily
Source: Bloomberg
