An important remainder by Otavio Costa
Inflation data came in hotter than expected, but it is not just about tariffs. Inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. You don’t solve it with a 7% fiscal deficit and a money supply hitting record highs. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
US margin debt has hit $1 trillion for the first time in history.
This is a ~65% surge over the last 3 years. Source: Global Markets Investors
🔴 Scott Bessent says the U.S. should be "150, 175 bps lower" on the Fed's rate ‼️
😨 Vows to cut 50 bps at next Fed meeting. ⚠️ Bashes critics saying he can't be head of treasury and Fed at the same time - “If Elon can run two things at once, why can't I?” 🚀 🚀 🚀 Source: Coinvo
The us budget deficit disaster continues with renewed momentum.
Source: zerohedge through Peter Mallouk on X
US small-caps are breaking higher in a substantial factor rotation.
As highlighted by Andreas Steno Larsen on X, being short Russell 2000 index is a very crowded trade. A short-squeeze in the making?
🔴 US President Trump says he is looking at reclassifying marijuana.
The weed stocks and AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF ($YOLO) surged yesterday. ▶️ President Donald Trump said Monday his administration was “looking at reclassification” of marijuana and intends to make a decision in the upcoming weeks. ▶️ “It’s a very complicated subject base,” he said during a press briefing. “I’ve heard great things having to do with medical and bad things having to do with just about everything else.” ▶️ His comments come after a Friday Wall Street Journal report indicated Trump was considering reclassifying the drug as less dangerous. Source: Markets & Mayhem, Politico
Trump Nobel Peace Prize odds soar to record highs.
12% chance. Source: Polymarkets
‼️Mixed US inflation numbers.
Headline number steady. Core picked up. Services is strong. Supercore accelerated further. US CPI inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs showed mostly modest impacts. ▶️ The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. ▶️Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. ▶️A 0.2% increase in shelter costs drove much of the rise in the index, while food prices were flat and energy fell 1.1%, the BLS said. Tariff-sensitive New vehicle prices also were unchanged though used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% jump. Transportation and medical care services both posted 0.8% moves higher. ▶️Tariffs did appear to show up in several categories. 👉 For instance, household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase after rising 1% in June. 👉 However, apparel prices were up just 0.1% and core commodity prices increased just 0.2%. 👉 Canned fruits and vegetables, which generally are imported and also sensitive to tariffs, were flat. Note that both overall CPI and core CPI hit the highest level since February Source: CNBC, Charlie Bilello
