Markets see the US CPI report as a dovish one.
September rate cut odds (based on Fed funds futures) have jumped to 95% probability (from 82% pre-July CPI print). Source: Bespoke
Trump is now attacking Goldman Sachs and his CEO David Salomon
Source: X
‼️ An important item of today's CPI
The super-core measure, which is probably the Fed's most closely watch component, did increase further in July: +0.48% MoM (prior +0.21%) and +3.21% YoY (prior +3.02%). This is the largest annual increase since February. ▶️ As highlighted by Lawrence McDonald on X, the Supercore has been higher than 3% for four years vs. below 3% for the previous 8 years pre-2020. Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
The US president said he was nominating the 'Highly Respected Economist' EJ Antoni from the right wing Heritage Foundation to chair the agency
After firing the former commissioner for a gloomy jobs report he claimed was 'rigged' https://on.ft.com/3UkAOWG Source: FT
Apollo's Sløk says the U.S. remains the most dynamic economy in the world — and he uses one simple chart to make his point: the number of new business applications.
Source: Apollo, HolgerZ
Watch out US CPI electricity today
Recent BBG article cites the recent 2x increase in electricity vs. broader inflation. Source: Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury volatility falls to its lowest level since January 2022
No Fear left in the market! Source: Barchart
Some very important charts...
Goldman Sachs find that US import prices on tariffed goods have declined somewhat, suggesting that foreign exporters have absorbed some tariff costs by lowering their export prices to the US, unlike during the 2018-2019 trade war. Source: Goldman Sachs thru Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
