The US National Debt has now increased by $2.36 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended less than 6 months ago
Fast approaching $34 trillion. Source: Charlie Bilello
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Are US homes sellers so desperate?
Per Bloomberg, US Treasury issuance next year is expected to reach $1.9 trillion...
Excess supply of US Treasuries remains a key downside risk for bonds (and thus for equities given the still high correlation between the 2). Note that every Treasury auction is now very closely monitored by investors with some immediate consequences on market returns (e.g last week: strong auction triggered a drop in US Treasury yields on Wednesday and a rise in sp500). Source picture: Markets Mayhem
As we moved into 2024, one downside risk needs to be kept in mind:
tightening monetarypolicy cycle often operates with a lag. As shown on the chart below, stocks typically plunged many months after rates peaked in the past. Source. Bloomberg, Cheddar Flow
US households still have an estimated $433 billion in excess savings remaining from the 2020-21 stimulus programs
Source: TME
U.S. Investment Corporate Bond Spreads hit lowest level since April 2022 signaling that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising rates
This visual measures the additional yield investors need to own bonds rather than treasuries. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, a record ~40% of all US homes currently do NOT have mortgages
At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how UNAFFORDABLE this market is. Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases. In other words, this market is becoming ONLY affordable for those who are buying with CASH. As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse. This is called an affordability crisis. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
THE US REAL ESTATE MARKET IS MAKING HISTORY...
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter -> For the first time since 2005, new home prices are set to drop below existing home prices. In other words, new will be selling for LESS than old. The median new home price is down to ~$410,000 while the median existing home prices is nearing $400,000. Why is this happening? ~90% of mortgages outstanding currently have an interest rate that is below 5%. Many mortgage rates are BELOW the current inflation rate. A mortgage issued in 2020 or 2021 is effectively an asset now. Truly historic. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
