A record 85% of Americans now say it's a bad time to buy a house, according to Reventure
Two years ago, just ~30% of Americans thought it was a bad time to buy a home. Even in 2008, during the worst housing crisis of all time, this metric did not top 85%. In a market with high rates and supply levels 40% below the historical average, affordability is at all time lows. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Total US debt hits $34 trillion for the first time in history, putting US debt up 100% since 2014
Since the debt ceiling "crisis" ended in June 2023, total US debt is up nearly $3 trillion. This debt balance is more than the value of the economies of China, Germany, Japan, India and the UK COMBINED. The US is now spending $2 billion PER DAY on interest expense alone. Debt per capita is at a record high of $101,000. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
All-Time High $6.3 Trillion sitting in U.S. Money Market Funds
Source: Win Smart, CFA, FT
If you blinked you would have missed that one time that the US government was on track to pay down its debt...
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Net interest cost of US national debt grew by 38.5% just in 2023
Source: Game of Trades
Everyone enters 2024 long bonds! Consensus is rarely right for a full year
Source: Steno Research, Bloomberg, Macrobond
The Growth of New Car Prices in the U.S.
Source: Visual Capitalist
LIQUIDITY MATTERS... From QE (Quantitative Easing) to QT (Quantitative Tightening) to QB (Quantitative Balancing) to QE Light
Some interesting views by Andreas Steno Larsen (Steno Research / Macrobond): 2024 Q1 -> While we are celebrating our inflation-progress, Powell and Yellen intend on handing out "Stealth QE / QE light" gifts to the banking system in Q1-2024. Steno Research view is that USD liquidity is likely going to increase massively in Q1 due to a series of technicalities surrounding the BTFP, ON RRP and TGA facilities. These three liquidity adding mechanisms will more than outweigh the QT program (running at a little less than $95bn a month on average), leaving a very benign liquidity picture ahead for Q1-2024. By their estimates, liquidity will increase with $8-900bn until end-March, which almost resembles a QE-light / stealth QE scenario. This will in case be one of the fastest liquidity additions on record, only outpaced during the early innings of the pandemic! If this happens, such a liquidity injection might be a massive tailwind for risk assets...
