US CORE CPI LITTLE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED => A FED PAUSE IS LIKELY BUT NO RATE CUT ANYTIME SOON
Consensus expected a reacceleration of Headline inflation (+0.6% MoM after +0.2% in July) and a stabilisation of “core” inflation (+0.2% MoM after +0.16% in July). Key actual numbers are the following: ON A SEQUENTIAL BASIS (MoM) Headline inflation numbers are in-line with expectations (+0.6%). That is the biggest MoM since June 2022 and the second straight monthly increase in CPI...The energy index rose 5.6% in August after increasing 0.1% in July. There was a big turn-around in airline fares. They rose 4.9% after dropping 8.1% in each of the previous two months. But the gasoline index dominated with an increase of 10.6 percent in August, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month.
2022 global military budgets hit an all-time high of $2.2 trillion
When you combine the military budgets of the US and China, it surpasses the combined budgets of all other countries in the world! By Genuine Impact / Chris Quinn
After hitting a 16-year low against the U.S. Dollar, China's currency had its biggest gain in almost 3 weeks after the country issued a warning not to bet against its currency
Source: Barchart, FT
Median US home prices are now contracting at a level only seen 2 times in the last 60 years:
- 1970 - 2008 Both ended in severe recessions Source: FRED, Game of Trades
In case you missed it...
The credit default swap (CDS) prices for the US rose sharply during the small banks crisis back in spring, and then went down as the crisis subsided quickly. These prices have been rising steadily since early summer. US CDS are now above Spain, which is considered a higher risk country from a sovereign credit risk perspective. Source: Bloomberg
U.S. interest payments equal military spending for the first time in 3 decades (~1.9 Trillion combined)
Source: Barchart, FRED
One of the reasons we are not in recession yet. Despite rate hikes US corporate net interest payments are going down so far👇
Source: Michel A. Arouet
Over 80% of all US money created (US Dollars printed) took place between 2020 and 2023
Source: Win Smart
