U.S. Treasuries have reached one of the most oversold levels in the last 36 years
This has typically foreshadowed events such as the October 1987 crash, the Dotcom Bubble, and the Nasdaq surge (Oct 2022) Source: Barchart, BofA
Looking at the September US payroll numbers through another lens
Unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K. All of the unadjusted jobs in September came from the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers). What if all the mess in Washington (shutdowns, political gridlock in Congress, etc.) and rising cost of debt put a cap on the fiscal support? Where are the jobs going to come from? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The yield premium on the S&P 500 has completely disappeared for the first time in over 20 years
The US 10-year treasury now offers (theoretically) the same amount of sweet hot sauce goodness that's on offer in the stock market. Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
U.S. Mortgage Rates surpassed 8% this week for the first time in more than 23 years
Source: barchart
Looks like oil prices and bond yields have decoupled
Although the oil price has crashed sharply in the past 2 days, US 10y yields have fallen only slightly. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The impacts of rising interest rates on the costs of your mortgage over the life of the loan
In the US, A $400,000 house now costs over $1,000,000, with interest rates now at 7.7% from 3%. Source: WallStreet Sliver
US Investment Grade bond yields have moved up to 6.3%, their highest level since June 2009
In early 2021 they hit an all-time low of 1.79%. A competition for stocks? Source: Charlie Bilello
Is ADP the start of something big or an anomaly, knowledge_vital asks as ADP report for September saw a huge drop in new jobs to just 89k vs. 150k forecast, & down from +180k in Aug
The 89k is the softest number since Jan 2021. Large comps drove downside, they shed 83k jobs in September. Souce: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
