Commercial real estate prices are still expected to crater, Morgan Stanley warns
Prepare for pain in the #us #commercial #realestate market warns Morgan Stanley which believes that prices could drop by as much as 27.4% from peak to trough by the end of 2024. And McKinsey believes prices could slide by as much as 42% in a worst case scenario. Source: barchart
So far, in fiscal year 2023, the US government has a total deficit of $1.393 TRILLION.
In June 2023 alone, the deficit was $228 billion, up from just $88 billion in June 2022. On average, the US deficit has risen by ~$155 billon per MONTH in FY2023. At the current rate, total US debt would rise by $18.5 TRILLION in 10 years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The EV industry comprises three essential components: lithium producers, parts manufacturers, and EV manufacturers.
Looking ahead, it is likely that electric motors and lithium batteries will become prevalent in all cars. Source: Genuine Impact
Money debasement explained in one picture
Source: Thomas Fahrer
According to new US government data, annualized interest payments on US debt just crossed $900 BILLION for the first time in history
Government spending jumped 15% in June, the same month we had the debt ceiling “crisis.” Ironically, in the same month we had a debt ceiling crisis, US Federal spending hit a near record and annualized interest expense crossed $900 billion. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Dollar’s worst slump since November has some strategists saying a turning point is finally at hand for the greenback
Standard Bank expects ‘multi-year downtrend.’ Dollar bears can also lean on valuation measures. Dollar is overvalued in terms of purchasing power (Big Mac Index) against all major currencies except Swiss franc, the Swedish/Norwegian krona, and the Canadian dollar. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date. In the last 20 years only 2019 had a better start. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
Wall Street is giving up on us recessoon risk as highlighted by a Wall Street Journal article
Jim Bianco Research shows consensus expectations for the coming quarters are pointing towards a very small contraction. The blue line is the June update of a survey conducted by Bloomberg of around 70 economists showing the median forecast for the next six quarters.
