There is always a bear market somewhere...
The meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering. Cumulative C&I lending is -1.0% since the start of 2023 (red). Median growth by this point in the year is +4.5% (black), while 2022 was up +9.3% by this point (blue). Big US investment slump is underway... Source: Robin Brooks
Remember the debt ceiling crisis?
Source: Charlie Bilello
Japanese stocks have an earnings yield that is 612bps above the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds
Put that in context; in the US, the gap is only 113bps. Little room for error in the US, plenty of room in Japan. This is a margin of safety concept. Source: Jeff Weniger
Dow component returns in 2023...
Source: Charlie Bilello
FED QT continues w/balance sheet dropped by $22.4bn past week.
It is 6th week in a row that total assets shrink. Fed more than leveled the increase in the wake of the banking crisis from March. Fed balance sheet now equal to 31% of US's GDP vs #ECB's 53%, SNB's 121%, BoJ's 128%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Nasdaq is still lagging the average bear market recovery performance, per Bloomberg.
Source: Cheddar Flow
Heat map of the NASDAQ 100's $QQQ performance so far in 2023
Source: Evan, Bloomberg
A big week ahead for US earnings
Almost 50% of the SP500 (by market cap) will report 2Q results this week including some of the Magnificent Seven ($MSFT $META $GOOGL) but also $T $VZ $BA $F $KO $INTC $GM $MMM $GE $V $XOM $MCD $MA $PG and $BMY. Source: Earnings Whispers
