US net interest expense is 15% of tax revenue, it will rise to 25% in 2035 according to the CBO...
It will get there much faster if the Fed starts hiking rates again Source: zerohedge
What can wonder what happened in the US last month?
Source: NFIB
The 20 largest US stocks represent $24 trillion in market cap
Close to the total of the 480 other stocks in the S&P 500 ($29.8T) as well as the entire U.S. economy, measured at $27T in GDP in 2023.2
US Economic Surprises are starting to roll out.
See below yesterday macro numbers - majority of them missed estimates (hard & soft data) *ADP Payrolls: Miss 🔴 *S&P Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services Employment: Miss 🔴 *Factory Orders: Miss 🔴 Source: Jessie Cohen
Overnight gains in US equities have massively outpaced intraday gains.
Source: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna International Group, The Daily Shot
⚠️US QUITS RATE IS FALLING QUICKLY⚠️
The quits rate, the % of workers voluntarily exiting their jobs fell to 1.9% in September, the lowest since June 2020. Americans are increasingly depending on their current jobs as the hiring pace has declined. Data for October is due today. Source: Global Markets Investor
The US stock market is MASSIVE: US stock market capitalization accounts now for 74% of the MSCI World Index, a new all-time high.
Since the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis, this percentage has increased by ~25 points. By comparison, Europe and Japan’s share have dropped by ~15 and ~5 percentage points, respectively. As a result, the US' share of global market cap is now 4 TIMES larger than Europe and Japan COMBINED. This comes as the S&P 500 has rallied 450% over the last 15 years compared to a 70% and 310% gain of the Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225. The US stock market has never been larger. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, SG Cross Asset Research, Factset
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve just reported a $19.9 BILLION operating loss in Q3 2024 up from $16.9 billion in Q2.
This marks the 8th consecutive quarter of operating losses for the central bank. As a result, cumulative operating losses reached a massive $210 billion over the last 2 years. This comes as the Fed has been paying hundreds of billions in interest to banks and money market funds. At the same time, income the Fed has earned on Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities has declined. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
