Ever since COVID, January inflation has come in "hot."
Today's core CPI is no different. A proxy for underlying inflation is "core" services (in blue on the chart below courtesy of Robin Brooks) and that looks well-behaved. So it could be that this "hot" reading is largely about noise and residual seasonality, as in 2023 and 2024... Source: Robin Brooks
Visualizing the Growth of U.S. Consumer Debt
🚨 The Kaplan Group analyzed the State Level Household Debt Statistics from 2003 to 2023, sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Data were retrieved for auto loans, mortgages, credit cards, and student loans since 2003. The evolution of each of these elements over the last 20 years was calculated. For inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was utilized. 👉 Key Takeaways - Student loan debt is five times larger than it was 20 years ago - Credit card debt has shown minimal growth since 2023; from 2010 to 2016, it was even lower than in 2003 - The total amount of debt has grown by 81.5% since 2003 Source: Visual Capitalist, Voronoi
US innovation & entrepreneurial spirit versus overregulation, left redistribution mindset and lack of innovation.
EU is straight on its way to become an open-air museum. Source: Michel A.Arouet, Augur infinity
A nice one by Robin Brooks on X: There's 3 drivers of Trump tariffs:
(i) border security (Canada, Colombia, Mexico); (ii) geopolitics (steel & aluminum); (iii) fairness (reciprocal tariffs & currency manipulation). China is the only country to be tariffed - and will get tariffed more - as it hits all of these...
US Interest Costs Soar to $1.2 Trillion – Now Exceed Defense Spending
Over the last 12 months, US interest payments hit a record $1.2 trillion, surpassing defense spending ($900 billion) and now ranking as the second-largest government expense after Social Security. With trillions in debt maturing this year, the US government will have to refinance. If rates remain stable, total interest payments could skyrocket to $1.5 trillion by year-end. Even in a scenario where the Fed cuts rates by 100 bps (from 4.5% to 3.5%), interest costs are still projected to reach ~$1.3 trillion by the end of 2025. source : BofA
*TRUMP: WILL ANNOUNCE 25% TARIFFS ON STEEL, ALUMINUM MONDAY The largest exporter of steel & aluminum to the US? canada followed by mexico
What happened to the 30 day moratorium on tariffs from Canada & Mexico? Source: Vic_Turbendian
BREAKING: Beginning Monday, China will implement tariffs of up to 15% on $14 billion in U.S. exports, including LNG, coal, crude oil, farm equipment, and select vehicles.
Looks like China is fighting back against Trump's 10% tariffs on Chinese imports that he announced last week... Source: Financial Times
China's retaliatory tariff will hit the United States today.
Here is how the U.S Corporations and consumers will be impacted. Source: Unicus @UnicusResearch
