Markets are now betting on big rate cuts next year
This chart shows that money markets have raised policy-easing wagers since the middle of October: by September 2024, the FED should have cut by 70 basis points, the ECB by 65 basis points and the BoE by 40 basis points. (pricing is derived from swap rates tied to policy-meeting dates) Source: Bloomberg
Key Events This Week:
1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Wednesday 2. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday 3. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Thursday 4. Consumer Sentiment data - Friday 5. ~10% of S&P 500 reports earnings this week 6. Total of 12 Fed speaker events All attention remains on the Fed. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Will she get it right this time?
ECB
A very interesting chart highlighted by Tavi Costa
This is the largest number of workers on strike in the history of the data. As corporate profit margins remain comfortably above their typical averages, it leaves room to absorb increased labor costs. This could contribute significantly to inflation. Source: Tavi Costa
⚠️BREAKING: *SOUTH KOREA TO RE-IMPOSE STOCK SHORT-SELLING BAN THROUGH JUNE
Source: www.investing.com
Last week "pain trade" in one chart
-> Last week's Risk On move has pushed Hedge Funds to cover their shorts, triggering violent short squeezes. The Goldman Sachs Most Shorted Stocks Basket jumped by 13% over the week. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Central Banks around the world are now cutting rates at the fastest pace in more than 3 years
When will the U.S. follow suit? Source: Barchart, BofA
Morgan Stanley industrial team runs through their conclusions coming out of a choppy earnings season
A double-digit short-cycle slowdown is getting priced in, but ongoing inventory and incremental capex pressures are not. Source: MS, TME
