US tariff revenue is skyrocketing
Annualized tariff revenues have hit a record $335 billion. This is more than triple the average seen in previous years. So far in August, collected customs and duties have reached $22.5 billion. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
All eyes on Nvidia quarterly earnings tonight
Nvidia now makes up ~8% of the S&P 500. It has a Trailing PE of 58x vs. 28x for the SPX (Gaap). It is forecast to grow 34% in the next year vs. 13.5% for the SPX. It is facing a growing number of competitors and a decreasing number of Global clients (China is discouraging the purchase of its H20 chips). It will probably report good numbers, but those good numbers must grow for a long time to justify its rating. Source: Brew Markets @brewmarkets, Vaughan Henkel, CFA, CAIA
⚠️ US slaps India with 50% tariffs
➡️ FT: "The US has slapped punitive tariffs on India over its purchases of discounted Russian oil, dealing a blow to the world’s fastest growing large economy and deepening a rift between Washington and New Delhi. The 25 per cent levy — which came on top of a 25 per cent “reciprocal” tariff — took effect at 12.01am US eastern time on Wednesday and raised rates on India to among the highest rates in the world. President Donald Trump’s announcement this month that the US would double its tariff rate on India marked a sudden escalation of tensions, following the sides' failure to reach a breakthrough in trade talks. Negotiators had initially targeted the first stage of a trade deal by early summer". Source chart: Bloomberg
Today's market mood... no pressure Nvidia
Source: Stocktwits
In case you missed it...
Prices paid component in Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index spiked in August... highest since February 2023. Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon
The 69% decline in the $VIX over the last 20 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history.
Source: Charlie Bilello
"Buy the Dip" Trading Strategy is having its best return in more than 30 years
Source: Barchart
➡️ Trump administration military leaders are “thinking about” whether the U.S. should acquire equity stakes in top defense contractors, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.
➡️ Lockheed Martin, which makes most of its revenue from federal contracts, is “basically an arm of the U.S. government,” he said. ➡️ Lutnick’s remarks on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” came days after the U.S. government acquired 10% of Intel stock in a roughly $9 billion deal. Source: CNBC
