Demographics is becoming a serious issue for US growth
As shown on the chart below, US population growth has collapsed, reaching levels near 0% indicating almost NO growth. This is actually the worst population growth setup seen in over 100 years of US history. Current levels have NEVER been seen in 100+ years. Even during the Great Depression, population growth bottomed out at around 0.5% Source: Game of trades
The ENORMOUS EIGHT 2022-2023 Combined Total Returns...
Nvidia $NVDA: +56% Microsoft $MSFT: +8% Apple $AAPL: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -6% Meta $META: -6% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -6% Google $GOOGL: -10% Amazon $AMZN: -16% Netflix $NFLX: -28% Tesla $TSLA: -38%
CTAs are currently short $52 billion in U.S. equities, the largest short position in AT LEAST 5 years
Source: barchart
The chart below shows the distribution of interest rates on outstanding US mortgages
Over 30% of borrowers have rates below 3%, up from just ~5% of borrowers prior to the pandemic. Virtually no new mortgages are being taken out at 7%+ interest rates that we currently see. real estate market seems to be frozen Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ICE
For only the 3rd time in the last 50 years, commercial bank credit has declined by more than 2%
The other 2 times were the peak of the Dot Com Bubble and the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Source: barchart
China reported a worse-than-expected drop in exports in October, while imports surprisingly rose for the month from a year ago
China’s customs agency said exports in U.S. dollar terms fell by 6.4% in October from a year ago. That’s worse than the 3.3% drop predicted by a Reuters poll. Overall, China’s exports have fallen on a year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year. China’s exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union fell by double digits in October, according to CNBC calculations of official data. Exports to the U.S. dropped by more than 8%, the analysis showed. Imports rose by 3% in U.S. dollar terms in October from a year ago. That’s in contrast to the Reuters’ forecast for a 4.8% drop from a year ago. However, China’s imports from the U.S. were down by 3.7% in October versus the year ago period, CNBC calculations of customs data showed. China’s imports from the European Union rose by more than 5%, while those from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew by 10.2%, the analysis showed. Source: CNBC
Hedge Funds extended short positions on Treasuries to a record just before smaller-than-expected US bond sales and weaker jobs data spurred a rally
Leveraged funds ramped up net short Treasury futures positions to the most in data going back to 2006, according to an aggregate of the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures as of Oct. 31. The bets persisted even though the cash bonds had rallied the week before. Source: Bloomberg
What powered the world in 2022?
Coal still leads the charge when it comes to electricity, representing 35% of global power generation, followed by natural gas at 23% and hydroelectric at 15%. Source: Elements, Visual Capitalist
