Don't be too excited about Fed rate cuts.
Examining Fed rate cycles since 1970s has revealed that investors have more to fear from 1st cut in a cycle than the pause. On average, sp500 is up +5% over 100 days between last Fed tightening and 1st cut. The trough in broader market is -23% over 200 days after 1st cut in a series, SRP has calculated. Source: HolgerZ
Great visual by Quartr ->
Agriculture equipment giant $DE may appear boring at first glance. Under the hood lies a complex and fascinating entity with a rich 187-year history, leveraging cutting-edge chips, sensors, and autonomy technology. $DE has grown its EPS at a 11.7% CAGR, or 38x, since 1990
Tech Stocks are trading at all-time highs relative to the SP500, even surpassing the peak of the Dot Com bubble...
Source: BofA, Bar chart
Cocoa is the new crypto
Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
In case you missed it:
After bank of japan abolished negative interest rates this week for 1st time since 2016, the volume of bonds with negative interest rates has shrunk to $300mln. At its peak, there was a volume of $18tn worth of bonds with negative rates. But this weird experiment seems to be over – for now. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The Fed wants to loosen into what has already been the largest effective easing of financial conditions that we've seen from peak to trough...
equity markets, gold and digitalgold absolutely love it! Source: Markets & Mayhem
Turkey raises benchmark rate unexpectedly by 500bps to 50%.
But main rate still way below inflation of 67.1%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
If one ignores dividends gold has been able to keep up with equities since Nixon ended things in 1971.
Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg
