Albert Edwards from SG explains in one chart why this time is different and how the rise #interestrates hasn't triggered a recession yet.
Indeed, as shown on the chart below, Corporate NET interest payments as a % of post-tax economic profits (red line) has been going DOWN despite Fed Funds (black line) going UP! Edwards frames it as such: "We can see clearly from the Fed’s Z1 (table L103) that the US corporate sector is a massive net borrower. Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy. BUT NOT THIS TIME. Corporate net interest payments have instead collapsed (...) something very strange has happened, and it helps explain the recession’s tardy." So what has happened? As Edwards concludes, a sizeable proportion of the "huge, fixed rate borrowings during 2020/21 still survives on company balance sheets in variable rate deposits" meaning that corporations continue to benefit from locking in the ultra low rates of 2020 and 2021 even as their cash interest income are soaring. Indeed, as the SocGen strategist adds, "companies have effectively played the yield curve in reverse and become net beneficiaries of higher rates, adding 5% to profits over the last year instead of deducting 10%+ from profits as usual". Putting it all together, Edwards says that "it’s not just ‘Greedflation’ that has boosted US profit margins and delayed the recession (...) Interest rates simply aren’t working as they once did. It is indeed a mad, mad world" Source: www.zerohedge.com, SocGen
Barron's insider ratio has turned bearish. What do they know that retail investors don't?
(This is the ratio of insiders sales to buys - readings under 12:1 are bullish. Those over 20:1 are bearish) Source Chart: Barrons
EURCHF tumbled today as the Swiss Franc saw demand ahead of The Fed and ECB.
The swissy is the strongest vs the euro since Sept 2022 (with the biggest strengthening of CHF vs EUR since January today)... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
The last time The Dow had a longer winning streak than this (12 straight days) was in Jan 1987 (13 days - the all-time record win streak)...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Alphabet shares rose about 7% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit, driven by growth in its cloud-computing unit.
For the fourth straight quarter, Google’s parent company reported growth in the single digits as it reckons with a pullback in digital ad spending that reflects concerns about the economy. Analysts don’t expect growth to hit double digits again until the fourth quarter. $GOOG Alphabet Q2 FY23 details by App Economy Insights • Revenue +7% Y/Y to $74.6B ($1.8B beat) • Operating margin 29% (+1pp Y/Y) • EPS $1.44 ($0.10 beat) ☁️ Google Cloud: • Revenue +28% Y/Y to $8.0B. • Operating margin 5% (+14pp Y/Y). ▶️ YouTube ads +4% to $7.7B. Source: App Economy Insights, CNBC
When it comes to the rush into AI stocks, these 2 charts are not easy to interpret from a contrarian perspective
On one hand, record inflows into AI etfs could mean there is too much "hot money" = BEARISH from a contrarian perspective. On the other hand, shorts continue to accumulate positions betting on a collapse of AI-related mega-caps tech stocks. This is BULLISH from a contrarian perspective. Source chart: JPM, TME
US credit delinquencies including housing have now risen above 2009 levels.
Source: Sven Henrich
93% of the US yield curve is currently inverted
Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg