Orange juice futures are trading like a meme stock! The surge is mainly driven by #supply driven (exarcebated by speculators positioning). The 2 supply issues are the following:
1/ Extreme weather intensified by global heating ravaged this season’s crop of the citrus fruit: last year Florida, which produces more than 90% of the US’s orange juice supply, was hit by Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole and freezing conditions in quick succession, devastating orange producers in the Sunshine State. 2/ A bacterial disease -> Florida Producers battled an incurable citrus greening disease that is spread by an invasive insect, rendering fruit unusable. Most infected trees die within a few years, and some producers said they were giving up farming and selling their land. Industry figures said US orange production would reach its lowest level for more than a century. Source: The Guardian, Longview Economics
At least a positive (contrarian) news
The SPX Put to call ratio is at its highest since the SVB banking crisis. In a short term view, the 'PUT BUS' is getting crowded and a crowded trade is usually not a good trade. Source: JC Investment
Options specialists seem to indicate that $SPX 4350 is the new put wall to watch
Markets & Mayhem shows that we are deep in negative gamma territory, with dealers estimated to be short about $58.41B of gamma exposure This often leads to an increase in volatility as it is more likely that dips are sold and rips are bought.
Watchcharts Rolex and Patek second-hand indices are dropping rapidly, down -11.5% and -16.8% respctively over the last 12 months
This is an interesting smooth time series for global economy as it is independent from manipulation and less prone to day-to-day shift in sentiment. Source: www.watchcharts.com
After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales fell 1.3% over the last year, the 9th consecutive YoY decline
That's the longest down streak since 2009. Nominal retail sales increased 2% YoY vs. a historical average of 4.7%. Source: Charlie Bilello
Hedge funds top 5 holdings Q2 2023
Recurring #themes: Hyperscalers $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT Semiconductor $AMD $NVDA $TSM Consumer tech $AAPL $TSLA Specialty Retail $BBWI $RH Global apps $META $NFLX Payments $MELI $V Source: App Economy Insights
About providing the right information, and presenting it the right way!
Source: P. Akers thru Pascal BORNET
Global equity positioning by ctas is very, very long
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Goldman Sachs
