Syz the moment

12% chance. Source: Polymarkets

Headline number steady. Core picked up. Services is strong. Supercore accelerated further. US CPI inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs showed mostly modest impacts. ▶️ The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. ▶️Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. ▶️A 0.2% increase in shelter costs drove much of the rise in the index, while food prices were flat and energy fell 1.1%, the BLS said. Tariff-sensitive New vehicle prices also were unchanged though used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% jump. Transportation and medical care services both posted 0.8% moves higher. ▶️Tariffs did appear to show up in several categories. 👉 For instance, household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase after rising 1% in June. 👉 However, apparel prices were up just 0.1% and core commodity prices increased just 0.2%. 👉 Canned fruits and vegetables, which generally are imported and also sensitive to tariffs, were flat. Note that both overall CPI and core CPI hit the highest level since February Source: CNBC, Charlie Bilello

September rate cut odds (based on Fed funds futures) have jumped to 95% probability (from 82% pre-July CPI print). Source: Bespoke

Source: X

👉 Inflows into Ether ETFs far exceeded those of their Bitcoin counterparts, which saw a net inflow of $178 million on Monday, according to Farside Investors. 👉 CoinTelegraph's Tarang Khaitan reports that for the Ether funds, BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) attracted the lion’s share of flows, with a record $640 million going into the fund. 👉 The Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) was the runner-up and also recorded its largest single-day inflow, taking in $277 million. Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg

The super-core measure, which is probably the Fed's most closely watch component, did increase further in July: +0.48% MoM (prior +0.21%) and +3.21% YoY (prior +3.02%). This is the largest annual increase since February. ▶️ As highlighted by Lawrence McDonald on X, the Supercore has been higher than 3% for four years vs. below 3% for the previous 8 years pre-2020. Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg

A 750g jar has gone up by nearly 40% since 2019, far outpacing Germany’s general inflation rate of 21.8% over the same period. But this isn’t just about hazelnut spread: food prices in Germany as a whole have climbed by 38.4% since the end of 2019, according to Eurostat’s Food CPI. That’s much higher than in Italy (+29.5%) or France (+25.9%), highlighting how sharply grocery bills have risen in Germany. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

Source: Lance Roberts