Syz the moment

Reads with Ravi on X

by @heyoliverjane on X

Interest Expense, Social Security, and Health are set to account for 87% of the US government spending growth over the next 10 years. Government spending is estimated to grow from $6.8 trillion in Fiscal Year 2024 to $10.3 trillion in 2034, according to the CBO. $3.0 trillion of the $3.5 trillion increase come from Social Security, federal health care programs, and interest costs on the public debt. Interest costs are projected to be the fastest growing part of the budget, DOUBLING from $892 billion in 2024 to $1.7 trillion by 2034. The net interest share of spending growth could hit as high as 23%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CBO

From the 28nm design in 2011 to 3nm in 2022, the cost of designing a chip increased by 12x – benefiting design tool and IP giants such as $SNPS, $CDNS, and $ARM. Source: Quartr

Over the last 5 years, $BRK.B returned 130% compared to the $SPY 91% return Zooming out, this is where Buffett's legacy is unparalleled... From 1964 to 2023, Berkshire Hathaway returned an astounding 4,384,748%, compared to the S&P 500’s 31,223% gain Source: Stocktwits

Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)

Over the last 2 years, inflation expectations have fallen from ~8.0% to 4.9%, recording a similar drop as during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As a result, expectations are now at levels seen in the 2015-2019 period. Furthermore, 1-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey fell to 2.8%, the lowest since December 2020. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

-but only during the first part -stocks do well in the later stages Basically you need to lighten exposure into recession, then load up in the depths. Source: Schroders thru Callum Thomas