The U.S. government shutdown is now in its third week after the Senate again rejected a temporary funding bill.
Polymarket odds now show a 73% chance the shutdown lasts over a month. Source: Cointelegraph, Polymarkets
Nestlé – Trend Reversal Confirmed
After a 46% consolidation since January 2022, we finally have confirmation that the trend is reversing. The breakout above 78.27 marks the end of the consolidation phase, establishing 70.42 as the likely low. Interestingly, the stock broke below its 2003 long-term trend in July this year, but has now reclaimed it, confirming that this historical level remains valid. While a pullback could occur following a new high, it’s still too early to define a swing top — momentum is clearly back. Source: Bloomberg
Really important chart from @Econimica
QT NEVER happened in 10+yr USTs post-2022. The Fed still holds a large amount of long-term debt. The QT mainly took place through short-term Treasuries (the blue line). As explained by StockMarket.news, over the last few years, the Fed has been draining some money out of the system but doing it in a very controlled way. It’s avoiding a big sell-off in long-term bonds because that could cause interest rates to spike and hurt the economy. So while it looks like the Fed is being tough with QT, the reality is softer the real tightening is happening with short-term bonds, while the long-term side still has a safety net. It’s a reminder that even when the Fed says it’s tightening, it’s still making sure the markets don’t fall apart.
Wall Street average allocation to gold: 2.4%
Wall Street average allocation to crypto: 0.4% (source BofA Fund Manager Survey, zerohedge)
Silver to hit $100 by the end of 2026 says BNP Paribas and Solomon Global
Source: Barchart
China's deflationary vortex is getting worse:
*CHINA SEPT. CONSUMER PRICES FALL 0.3% Y/Y; EST. -0.2% *CHINA SEPT. PRODUCER PRICES FALL 2.3% Y/Y; EST. -2.3%
Will gold rally be as explosive as the one in the 80s ???
Source: Macrobond, Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
J.P. Morgan Crushed Q3 Earnings Estimates as Wall Street’s Dealmaking and Trading Revenue Explosion Drive Revenue Beat
JPMorgan just beat Q3 2025 earnings with net income jumping 12% to $14.4B ($5.07/sh), vs estimates of $4.85-$4.87 per share Revenue climbed 9% year-over-year to $46.4 billion, topping the $45.3-$45.5 billion Street expected. What Drove This? - Investment Banking: IB fees surged 17% to $2.6B as JPM stays #1 on the IB deal making tables for fees - Trading: Trading revenues were also up 25% this quarter to $8.94B despite Q3 being generally slower in markets - Loans: Net Interest Income (NII) came in at $24.1B, up from previous quarters, management raised guidance for 2025 The bank maintained solid capital ratios with ROE at 17% and ROTCE at approximately 19-21% What Happens from Here? - CEO Jamie Dimon noted the U.S. economy showed resilience during Q3 but cautioned about “significant risks” - These include tariffs, trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices - He mentioned that JPM was prepared for a variety of outcomes $JPM JPMorganChase Q3 FY25. • Net revenue +9% Y/Y to $46.4B ($1.5B beat). • Net Income +12% Y/Y to $14.4B. • EPS: $5.07 ($0.23 beat). • FY25 NII ~$95.8B ($0.3B raise). Source: App Economy Insights @EconomyApp Perplexity Finance @PPLXfinance
