The Bank of Airbnb $ABNB by Wolf of Harcourt Street
ABNB's interest income has skyrocketed to $777 million over the past 12 months. This return is more akin to a bank than a travel company. ABNB benefits from being the Merchant of Record which means that it is the party that processes and distributes the actual payment for a product or service. When a customer makes a booking on Airbnb, Airbnb receives the cash in advance. This cash is held on behalf of the host and paid out once the service has been provided. With the interestrate hikes over the past year, Airbnb was able to benefit from investing the cash in short-term US Treasury bills before paying it out to hosts. Source: Wolf of Harcourt Street
Standard Chartered expects spot Ethereum EF to be approved this week
Source: Radar🚨
All eyes are on Nvidia this week: Nvidia, $NVDA, earnings alone drove 42% and 37% of the S&P 500 year-over-year EPS growth in Q3 and Q4 2023.
The company also accounted for 11% of the entire S&P 500's return over the last 12 months. In Q1 2024, Nvidia’s contribution to the S&P 500's EPS growth is estimated to reach ~40%. Nvidia's Q1 2024 EPS and revenue are projected to grow by 474% and 241%, respectively. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
Bears of Wall Street
Source: Bloomberg
Deflationary forces are intensifying again in germany.
Producer prices fell by 3.3% YoY in April. In March, the decline was 2.9%. PPI is a good leading indicator for CPI. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Utilities Sector reaching an important level
Utilities sector (XLU US) has reached an important resistance zone (72,50-73,80), with its short-term trend showing bullish momentum against a long-term bearish trend. After rallying more than 30% since October, the question is whether the market can break through this significant resistance. Source : Bloomberg
Are large cap stocks losing popularity?
The number of large-cap US long-only funds has decreased by ~40% in 10 years, to its lowest level in decades. Since 2013, the number of large cap funds has declined from ~570 to ~340, according to Bank of America. In addition, active mutual funds have been consistently underperforming the market. More than 90% of actively-managed equity funds underperformed their benchmark in over the last 20 years. In 2023 alone, 60% of all active large-cap US equity funds underperformed the S&P 500. Source: Bank of America, The Kobeissi Letter
Brent crude futures extended gains on Monday, inching up amid political uncertainty in major producing countries after Iran’s president died in a helicopter crash.
But as always, things should be put into perspective: Iran has raised oil output over the last few years, with majority of exports going to buyers in China. Output is now >3mln bbl/d, the highest since 2019, making it the 3rd-biggest producer among OPEC members. But there are questions about how much higher Iran can take production considering capacity constraints. (BBG) Source: HolgerZ
