Finally some TACO ?
Source: Bloomberg
BYD breakout?
The long-term trend remains bullish. Since May 2025, BYD has gone through a 44% consolidation, and the structure is getting very interesting. As shown on the chart, price has formed 13 consecutive inside bars, all within the February 2025 power bar candle. This consolidation has also respected the 88.66 low, which is a key level. What makes this even more significant is that the February 2025 candle was also the breakout from a 4-year sideways consolidation. Now, on the daily chart, we are starting to see a breakout as well — a potentially strong continuation signal 📈 Definitely one to keep on the watchlist. Source: Bloomberg
Trump’s Truth Social Post Shifts Gulf Energy Dynamics
Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social
Gold is printing one of its largest down candles since the early-February
puke and breaking below the 50-day moving average, a level it hasn’t closed beneath since last summer. Key support comes in at $4800, with the 200-day moving average near $4600. Source: TME
The euro has sold off aggressively in the wake of the Iran war.
We briefly bounced at the range lows, but the move has been weak and lacks follow-through. Now sitting well below the 200-day moving average, with the 21-day crossing lower, a bearish shift in trend dynamics. Last time this setup played out, the euro didn’t stabilize, it continued the move lower. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG
Dr Copper ?
Source: Bloomberg
Private Credit Faces Early-Year Withdrawal Pressure
In Q1, wealthy investors requested over $10B from major private credit funds. Blackstone, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley are limiting withdrawals to ~70%. Apollo, Ares, and Goldman Sachs will report soon. Though small relative to $1.5T in direct lending, private credit’s fast growth and $9T U.S. retirement exposure mean liquidity strains could test the model’s foundations. Temporary squeeze or early warning? Source: FT
Nice infographic on Qatar LNG and Ras Laffan.
Source: S&P Global
