Bond vol matters
SPX vs VXTLT (inverted) needs little commenting. Source: TME
Yesterday was worst cross-asset selloff since April
Source: TME, Bloomberg
S&P 500 technicals
$SPX has reversed near the top of the range and is now breaking below the short-term trend line. Zooming out, the market still lacks a clear medium-term trend, with price sitting right on the 50-day and RSI suddenly at its most oversold since the December shakeout. First meaningful support comes in around 6,800 (futures). Source: LSEG, TME
The EU owns 40% of us debt
Source: Bloomberg
GS says very small effects of the 10% tariff on Europe
"While implementation is highly uncertain, we estimate that a 10% tariff would lower real GDP in the affected European countries by 0.1-0.2% via lower exports. The inflation effects would likely be very small and a Taylor rule would point to modestly lower policy rates, all else equal." Source: TME
How Much Metal Can $10K Buy?
Source: ELEMENTS
Silver price forecasts 👇
Source: Stocks World
🚨 Why JPMorgan's Desk Thinks The Greenland Standoff Ends In A Bullish "Negotiated Arrangement" 🚨
The headlines are screaming "Trade War." JPMorgan’s desk is whispering "Opportunity." 📈 While the media focuses on the chaos, JPM’s International Market Intel team is looking at the scoreboard. Here is why they think the "Greenland Standoff" is actually a bullish signal for 2026: 1. It’s a Negotiation, Not an Invasion. 🤝 Federico Manicardi (JPM) calls it straight: This is classic Art of the Deal. Trump throws out a maximalist stance (10% EU tariffs / buying Greenland) to create leverage and urgency. The goal? A "Negotiated Arrangement," not a sale. 2. The "Bullish" Outcome. 🐂 JPM expects a deal where: ✅ Denmark keeps sovereignty. ✅ The US gets Arctic security & missile defense upgrades. ✅ Access to critical natural resources is secured. Result? Uncertainty clears, and the 2026 growth reboot stays on track. 3. The "Tail Risks" are Overblown. 🧊 An actual invasion? "Melts NATO faster than Arctic ice" and polls horribly. A sale? Unlikely and unnecessary. JPM sees the downside limited to a mid-single-digit (MSD) drop at worst before the rebound. 4. Eyes on Davos. 🏔️ With Trump addressing the World Economic Forum tomorrow, expect the rhetoric to shift from "threats" to "affordability and growth." The Bottom Line: Volatility is a gift if you understand the playbook. The market is anticipating a growth reboot, and JPM believes this "orange flag" is just noise on the path to a deal. Source: ZeroHedge
