The cost of chip designs has risen at an incredibly rapid pace.
From the 28nm design in 2011 to 3nm in 2022, the cost of designing a chip increased by 12x – benefiting design tool and IP giants such as $SNPS, $CDNS, and $ARM. Source: Quartr
Buffett > S&P 500?
Over the last 5 years, $BRK.B returned 130% compared to the $SPY 91% return Zooming out, this is where Buffett's legacy is unparalleled... From 1964 to 2023, Berkshire Hathaway returned an astounding 4,384,748%, compared to the S&P 500’s 31,223% gain Source: Stocktwits
How Warren Buffet selects stocks
Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)
Some good news on US inflation: 1-year inflation expectations declined to 4.9% in August, the lowest since the pandemic in 2020, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey.
Over the last 2 years, inflation expectations have fallen from ~8.0% to 4.9%, recording a similar drop as during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As a result, expectations are now at levels seen in the 2015-2019 period. Furthermore, 1-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey fell to 2.8%, the lowest since December 2020. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Recessions are Bad for Stocks...
-but only during the first part -stocks do well in the later stages Basically you need to lighten exposure into recession, then load up in the depths. Source: Schroders thru Callum Thomas
BREAKING: 90% of US cities saw a rise in year over year unemployment rates in July, according to the BLS.
Jobless rates jumped in 350 of the 389 metropolitan areas last month. Additionally, in 8 large metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, FEWER people held a job in July 2024 than in July 2019. At the same time, average weekly wages DROPPED in 43% of the 389 metropolitan areas. In 5 of the 8 highest-paying areas with average weekly wages above$1,400, salaries declined year-over-year. The US labor market is weakening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Is the SP500 trading out of sync with other markets?
Source: zerohedge, Morgan Stanley
Speculators have turned Bearish on the U.S. Dollar for the first time since February 🚨
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
