Dollar seasonality
Now is the time to buy the dollar, at least from a seasonality point of view Source: The Market Ear
Sign of strength of markets
Source: Ryan Detrick
Global Debt hits new all-time high of $338 Trillion 🚨🚨🚨
Source: Barchart
Small cap junk stocks have beaten quality stocks so handily that we are at Dot-Com bubble performance gaps.
In the last 6 months, the small cap Russell 2000 index, which has a ton of money-losing companies, beat the higher quality S&P 600 by 6.4%. That is equal to April 1999. Source: Jeff Weniger
This morning’s surprisingly negative ADP data comes at a tricky time, with Friday’s jobs report at risk from the shutdown.
Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in two-and-a-half years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs during the month, the biggest slide since March 2023, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000. The report comes as the funding impasse in Washington, D.C. has led to the first government closure since late 2018 into early 2019. Failing a deal over the next two days, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report for September will not be released, nor will the Labor Department put out the weekly jobless claims count on Thursday. The last time the BLS payrolls report was delayed was in 2013. Source: CNBC, Bloomberg, @M_McDonough on X
In case you missed it... Eurozone inflation picked up in Sep, with CPI rising 2.2% YoY, driven by hashtag#energy base effects and higher service costs.
Core inflation, which excluding volatile items like energy & food, remained steady at 2.3%, in line with expectations. Source: Bloomberg, HolgrZ
It's official.
Silver just reached its highest quarterly close in history. Source: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta, Bloomberg
Amazing Blackstone report on the Picks and Shovels of AI
Source: Blackstone
