This is the reality the old continent needs to face: There is only one way to prosperity, hard work and higher productivity
UK and the eurozone have been lagging the US big time. Time for a wake-up call? Source: FT. Michel A.Arouet
The Bank of Japan (boj) is still on a path toward higher interest rates provided inflation and economic data continue in line with its forecasts
“If we are able to confirm a rising certainty that the economy and prices will stay in line with forecasts, there’s no change to our stance that we’ll continue to adjust the degree of easing,” Ueda said in response to questions in parliament Friday. Source: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Futures pricing in nearly 200 bps of cuts over the next year, which seems quite aggressive and presumes a rather hard landing scenario
Based on current macro data, there's no reason for the Fed to cut this aggressively. Let's see how Powell manages it today at jacksonhole. Source: Markets & Mayhem
TGI Thursdays
The S&P 500 is up an annualized +46.0% on Thursday so far in 2024. This would be the best return for Thursday since '21 (+51.5%) and best for any day since Friday last year (+53.0%). Bottom line, in bull markets you tend to see strength ahead of the weekend. ✔☑✅ Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick on X, Carson research
Bitcoin processed $36.6 TRILLION of transactions in 2023
That's more than DOUBLE MasterCard + Visa combined. Source: Bitcoin archive
BREAKING: The share of people who believe they will become unemployed in the next 4 months jumped to 4.4%, the highest on record
This is a significant surge from the 2.8% share seen in March 2024, according to the NY Fed job situation and outlook survey. At the same time, the share of workers who reported searching for a job in the last 4 weeks increased to 28.4%, the highest since the survey began in 2014. This was also up 9 percentage points from 19.4% recorded in July 2023. Further evidence the labor market is weakening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
Economic malaise deepens in Germany
German private sector falls deeper into contraction, flash PMI shows. German Composite PMI Index dropped to 48.5 in August, a 5mth low, down from prior 49.1 and below the expected 49.2. Manufacturing PMI fell to 42.1 from 43.2, below the consensus estimate of 43.5. On the services side, the PMI also hit a 5mth low of 51.4, compared w/prev reading of 52.5 and analysts forecast of 52.3. The report adds to evidence that Germany's recovery has fizzled out. GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in Q2, and analysts polled by Bloomberg predict barely any expansion at all over the whole of 2024. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Crude Oil falls to lowest price since January
Source: Barchart
