Global debt is surging as governments ramp up spending on national security and economic resilience.
Nearly $29tn was added to global debt in 2025, pushing the total to a record $348tn, according to IIF. Source: IIF, HolgerZ
Disruption risk from AI, a sector point of view
The most exposed are in the high/right corner, and most of these have a negative YTD return. Source: Credit From macro to micro @Credit_Junk
NVIDIA posted its best quarter ever
$68.1B revenue (+73% YoY) and Q1 guidance of ~$78B—but the stock fell, erasing post-earnings gains. CFO Colette Kress flagged potential long-term AI disruption from Chinese chipmakers. China exposure remains limited, with zero H200 chip sales and tariffs on U.S.-licensed shipments. The market reaction shows that when expectations are extremely high, even record results may disappoint. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
JPMorgan's Bob Michele compared the move in CLO equity to ABX indices from 2005 through 2007.
Two decades ago, traders dismissed some of those ABX moves as noise. Some are doing the same today with this move in CLO equity. (1/2) Source: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1
This chart is fascinating, not only because of where the number stands today, but also how it has changed over time in these countries.
Which one stands out most? Source: Michel A.Arouet
Silver scores as the number 3 "bubble" according to BofA's Bubble Risk indicator (data per last week).
Source: BofA, TME
OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO BURN $218 BILLION AND THAT SHOULD MAKE PEOPLE PAUSE
OpenAI is projected to spend $218B from 2026–2029—far more than Uber, Netflix, and Tesla combined (~$39B)—while top AI researchers note that more compute now yields marginal gains (Source: Hedgie). Unlike companies with clear revenue paths, OpenAI is losing money on $200/month plans, chasing scale in a field with diminishing returns, driving GPU shortages and higher costs. Meanwhile, AI’s actual contribution to U.S. economic growth was minimal, raising questions about sustainability once investor optimism fades.
Software is deeply oversold (see below $IGV ETF) - Deutsche Bank seems to agree
1. DB argues Anthropic’s Enterprise Agents event reinforces that model providers are more likely to act as orchestration layers on top of incumbent software systems, not replace them, given the deep data, workflows, and metadata embedded in existing platforms (“Claude is only as useful as the data it connects to”). 2. This supports DB’s prior view that AI displacement risk to core software is over embedded in current multiples, making the event incrementally positive for the software sector. 3. Risks remain, including pressure on software development costs, potential changes to the interaction layer that could lower switching costs, and increased competition around the “control plane” for agentic AI, though DB continues to see this dynamic as supportive for infrastructure and compute demand.
