The US Dollar Index is at its lowest level of the year while Gold is at an all-time high, up 22% year-to-date. $USD $GLD
Source. Charlie Bilello
The US Labor Department revises 12-month job growth down by a massive 818,000 jobs
In other words, the US economy actually created 818,000 LESS jobs than initially reported. Furthermore, the US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023 and added 344,000 jobs in Q4 2023, according to the BED survey released by BLS. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 663,000 and 577,000 new jobs in Q3 and Q4 2023. This is a jaw dropping 1,088,000 difference in job count over just two quarters. This is the BIGGEST negative revision to payrolls since the global financial crisis. Crucially, it took place in an election year and was meant to pad the numbers, making the economy appear much stronger than it was. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
$RACE Since Ferrari IPO'd in 2015, operating margins at the luxury vehicle manufacturer have grown by almost 12%
Underlying operating income has grown at a 16% CAGR over the last decade. Source: Koyfin
The Top 10 Countries by Gold Reserves in 2024
The country with the most gold is the United States, holding 8,133 tonnes valued at $628 billion. Half of the country’s reserves are stored at the United States Bullion Depository, commonly known as Fort Knox, a United States Army installation in Kentucky. Germany ranks second with 3,351 tonnes, followed by Italy with 2,452 tonnes. Source: Visual Capitalist
Fed rate cuts are imminent...
Here's a quick recap of the FOMC minutes... ▪ Fed Minutes said risk to inflation goal had decreased. ▪ The FOMC minutes indicate a "likely" rate cut in September as most Fed members are leaning towards a rate cut at the next meeting—if the data stays positive. ▪ July Debates: SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS SAID RECENT PROGRESS ON INFLATION AND INCREASES IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PROVIDED A PLAUSIBLE CASE FOR A 25-BASIS-POINT RATE CUT AT JULY'S MEETING OR THAT THEY COULD HAVE SUPPORTED SUCH A MOVE. ▪ ⚠️ Rising Unemployment Risks: Fed believed the labor market is in a better place but payrolls were overstated (made sense given the 818k job revision today). The majority are concerned about increasing unemployment. 📉 Economic Growth Downgraded: The outlook for growth in the second half of 2024 has been revised downward. Fed believed consumer spending did start to weaken based on delinquencies going up ▪ 📊 Inflation Confidence: Recent reports have strengthened the Fed’s belief in managing inflation. ▪ 🕰️ Timing Matters: Delaying easing could significantly weaken the economy. => The first rate cut since 2020 likely coming next month. => S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher as Fed minutes lift investors’ hopes for a September rate cut!
Japanese Stocks have both fallen and risen more than 20% in the last month
Source: barchart
Short Volatility etf $SVIX Assets Under Management are surging
Aug 2024: $600M Q1 2024: $140M Q1 2023: $88M Q1 2022: $22m Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald
Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March — or around 68,000 less each month – most since 2009
Before the report, the BLS’s initial payrolls figures indicated employers added 2.9mln total jobs in the period, or an avg of 242k per month. Now the monthly pace is more likely to be ~174k, still a healthy rate of hiring but a moderation from post-pandemic peak At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less than initially reported. => The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. This should allow the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, CNBC
