JPMorgan Chase – Positive rebound on swing support
The stock rebounded two days ago on a key swing support zone! Support at 291.44 was tested but managed to hold, with a close above that level. This could mark the end of the consolidation phase and the beginning of a new upward move. Source: Bloomberg
US Treasury yields are falling — but this time, it’s not about fear. It’s about confidence. 💡
The Trump–Bessent supply-side mix, tariff revenues, and AI-driven growth are reshaping the bond market story. 💵 Tariffs are turning out to be less inflationary than initially feared (at least for now) and deficit-friendly. 💰 Stablecoins now hold $180B+ in Treasuries, quietly anchoring the short end of the curve. 🚀 The U.S. productivity boom powered by AI is leaving others behind — while Europe unravels fiscally, Britain wrestles with debt, and China sinks deeper into deflation. As global credit stress rises, U.S. bonds are the safe haven again. The curve’s bull flattening isn’t a warning — it’s (almost) a vote of confidence. The U.S. is once again the "least worst" house in a bad neighborhood of indebted peers. Source: Bloomberg, James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy
🚨 Germany’s biggest carmaker is in trouble.
Volkswagen is staring at a potential €11 billion cash shortfall next year — a gap big enough to derail its investment plans and EV transition. Half-year profits are down 33%, and cash flow has turned negative (€1.4 billion). What’s driving the crisis? 🇨🇳 Weak sales in China 🇺🇸 Tariffs from the U.S. ⚙️ Fierce competition from fast-moving Chinese EV makers Now, cuts are hitting everywhere — marketing, sales, and even R&D. The company may be forced to sell assets just to fund new models and technologies. Executives are calling it “particularly fatal” — hitting right as Volkswagen tries to shift from combustion engines to electric. The once-unshakable German auto powerhouse is learning the hard way: 🔋 The EV race isn’t just about innovation — it’s about survival. Source: https://lnkd.in/gC5NC2YH, Bild
$7,000,000,000,000 sitting in money markets.
As rates come down that $7T will go somewhere. Where? • Gold • Bitcoin • Real Estate • Stocks Source: Grant Cardone
JP Morgan: “After taking 12 years to double from $1,000 to $2,000 (2008–2020), gold doubled again in just 5 years, crossing $4,000 this month.
The move from $3,000 to $4,000 took ~200 days — and from $3,300 to $4,300 only ~60.” Source: The Market Ear, JPM
$500 billion dollars of annual trade is being paused because of a $75,000 commercial?
Source: Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian
Yesterday we saw another $3 billion FED pump into the banking system.
The use of the facility is now a daily occurrence; the regional banking sector obviously has a liquidity issue. That's a total of $21 billion in 4 weeks. Source: The Great Martin on X
🚨 Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) about to end?
GoldmanSachs, JPMorgan, and BofA now see the Fed flipping course as liquidity gets dangerously tight. 💧 Bank reserves have dropped below $3 trillion again, a critical threshold for financial stability. 🏦 The reverse repo balance, which acted as a key liquidity buffer for the past 4 years, is now basically zero. That’s a big deal. With more Treasury bill settlements coming — and no reverse repo cushion left — the Fed may soon have no choice but to end QT and pivot back toward liquidity support. Both Goldman and JPMorgan have moved up their forecasts: they now expect the Fed to halt balance sheet runoff this month, well ahead of earlier expectations. Why? Because dollar funding costs are rising, and the system is flashing early signs of liquidity stress. 🧩 QT may have done its job. Now the Fed’s next move could be about stabilizing, not draining. Source: www.zerohedge.com
