BREAKING: China's central bank injects RECORD monthly amount into money markets
Source: Bloomberg
China reports fastest industrial expansion in nearly 2 years; retail sales growth misses estimates
China's industrial production advanced by 6.6% year-on-year in November 2023, following a 4.6% gain in the previous month and beating market forecasts of 5.6%. It was the fastest pace of growth since February 2022. Retail sales climbed 10.1% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace of growth since May — though analysts had expected a 12.5% spike following a low base in 2022. Retail sales rose 7.6% in October. Fixed asset investment in urban areas cumulatively grew 2.9% in the first 11 months of the year, compared to expectations for 3% growth. China’s urban unemployment rate stayed at 5% in November. Source: Trading Economics, CNBC
China is the only country experiencing deflation
CPI is down 4.7% since 2020 while every other country has experience inflation – some experiencing the highest in decades. Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg, Macrobond
Each time inflation in China turned negative the global economy was in a recession: 2001, 2008-09, 2020... Is this time different?
Source: Jeffrey Kleintop, Bloomberg
Looming Threat to Japanese Bonds: A Setback for the Global Fixed-Income Rally?
Amidst the impressive year-end rally in the global fixed-income market, a significant development last night casts a shadow over this upward momentum. The yield on the Japanese 10-year bond surged by 12 basis points, driven by comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, instigating a belief that change might unfold sooner than anticipated. The probability of the BOJ ending its negative rates policy this month skyrocketed to nearly 45%, as Himino's speech was perceived as relatively hawkish, amplifying the significance of the BOJ's December meeting to a live event. Adding to the market tension, the Japan 30-Year Bond Sale recorded its lowest bid-cover since 2015. Notably, the sharp steepening of the Japanese curve, from 20 bps in March to 80 bps at the end of October, coincided with a significant increase in US Treasury yields over the same period... Source: Bloomberg
INDIA IN THE TOP 5!
India's stock market hit a milestone this week. It's now a $4 trillion market. Here's how that looks alongside the world's biggest. Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
Chinese total private sector debt (level and relative to GDP). This helps explain why Moody's downgraded China's credit rating today...
Source: Longview Economics
BREAKING 🚨: Chinese Stocks have fallen to their lowest prices in 5 years
Source: barchart
