The IEA’s “historic oil glut” narrative is collapsing in real time.
US production, the foundation of their entire forecast, has now been quietly revised downward. And not by a small amount. This is the largest US supply revision in the IEA’s entire history. 660,000 kbpd just for the month of September The reason: - US shale, the only global source of meaningful growth for 15 years, is peaking. - Tier 1 acreage is drilled out - Gas-to-oil ratios are exploding - Water cuts are rising across every major basin - Decline rates are accelerating as sweet spots exhaust Shale’s boom phase gave the world a decade of easy barrels, masking the fact that the rest of the world wasn’t investing. Its bust phase will do the opposite... leave a supply hole the world cannot fill in the short term.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa just made a case for energy stocks, which have been quietly inching higher.
Here's his view: ▪️Positioning remains deeply bearish. ▪️U.S. oil and gas rigs are contracting meaningfully. ▪️Oil is trading near one of the cheapest levels in history relative to the money supply. ▪️Energy’s weight in the S&P 500 is hovering near record lows. He sees energy equities as one of the most fundamentally attractive corners of the market right now. Your thoughts? Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is breaking out from a three-year range.
Source: Connor Bates @ConnorJBates_ Bloomberg
Gold is only 2.8% of investor AUM... imagine 4–5%.
Source: The Market Ear
Gold is on pace for its best year since 1979, up over 60% in 2025.
Source: Charlie Bilello
UBS Hikes Copper Target to $13,000 per tonne 📈
As reported by Reuters, UBS has aggressively updated its projections. The bank raised March forecasts by $750 and mid-year targets by $1,000, predicting prices will climb to a new high of $13,000 by Dec 2026. The Catalysts: ⚡ Demand: Powered by AI data centers & EVs. ⛏️ Supply: "Persistent mine disruptions" widening the gap. Source: Mining Visuals on X https:// miningvisuals.com
The Great Orange Juice collapse continues as price fall to the lowest level since 2021 📉
Bottomless Mimosas on tap for Thanksgiving 🥳🥂
Gold loves rising Japanese rates.
This remains a massive driver of the shiny metal, despite few talking about it on a daily basis. Source: The Market Ear
