OPEC is less worried about market share. Hence the production cut
Great point made by John Arnold on Twitter. The OPEC cut was only possible because of the inability/unwillingness of the US shale oil sector to grow at the same rate as it was in 2016-2020. With much less supply elasticity in the market today, OPEC is less worried about losing market share if it defends higher prices. Source chart: EIA
Commodities: why this time is different
To address the recent comparisons with 2008: today's macro setup could not be more different than the Global Financial Crisis. Back then, capital spending for oil producers was at record levels after a decade-long bull market in natural resource businesses. Today, aggregate capex is historically depressed while the commodities-to-equities ratio is near 50-year lows. Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
China Gold Reserves keep growing
China lifts Gold reserves by extending buying to 3rd month. China has joined other nations in building up reserves of bullion. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The US government has almost completely ceased the drawing of its Strategic Petroleum Reserves
The US government has almost completely ceased the drawing of its Strategic Petroleum Reserves. We just saw the smallest change in SPR for over a year. Not surprising that oil prices firmed up recently as supply remains incredibly tight. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
The future value of disruptive materials
A number of materials play a critical role in the expansion of next generation technologies—potentially leading to a surge in demand and increased market values. Source: Visual Capitalsit, Global X
According to the World Gold Council, central bank purchases of gold have reached a level not seen since 1967
The world’s central banks bought 673 metric tons in one month, and in the third quarter, the figure reached 400 metric tons. This is interesting because the flow from central banks since 2020 had been eminently net sales. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut.
Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. Source: Bison interests
Where does the world's crude oil come from?
Source: Investwise
