OIL PANIC?
As shown on the chart below (courtesy of TME), big golden crosses can lead to much bigger outsized oil moves than what we are seeing now… This is becoming problematic for equity markets. As explained by Goldman, "rallying rates and commodities are derailing the goldilocks soft landing scenario. The uncomfortable combination of rallying oil and US long end breaking up is disrupting this equilibrium and triggering a rotation into the “persisting inflation & sticky rates” narrative, adding pressure on equities and valuations". (GS sales desk)
With a supply deficit of more than 2.5mn barrels a day through Q4, it is probable that Biden administration will not draw on the SPR so far ahead of the actual election date
Especially given the fact that SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are already running low. It seems more plausible that Joe Biden will concentrate the SPR ammunition around Q2-Q4 next year. This creates another supply risk in the short-run for the oil market Source: Andreas Steno
Is oil once again becoming a political commodity: Russia and Saudi Arabia are cutting oil production at the worst time for the Biden administration (hint: next year is an election year in the US)
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
An important chart
Source: J-C Parets
An immediate consequence of soaring oil prices mean -> Soaring gas prices in the US
Now at their highest for this time of year since 2012 (and 2nd highest ever)... not great for headline inflation and consumer purchasing power Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Brent Oil hits $90/bbl for 1st time since Nov as Saudi Arabia extended its unilateral oil production cut by another three months
Source: Bloomberg, Holger
Rice prices soared to the highest in almost 15 years in Asia on mounting concerns over global supplies as dry weather threatens production in Thailand and after top shipper India banned some exports
Concerns over the potential impacts of El Nino on production in some suppliers provided further underpinning to prices, as did rain-induced interruptions and quality variability in Vietnam’s ongoing summer-autumn harvest,” a FAO report stated. India, the world’s leading rice exporter, banned exports of non-basmati white rice on Jul. 20, as the government seeks to keep a cap on soaring food prices at home, and ensure there are enough supplies domestically “at reasonable prices.” Source: Bloomberg. CNBC
Is stocks leadership vs. commodities starting to roll over?
Source: J-C Parets
