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25 Sep 2023

The World’s Biggest Oil Producers

Source: Visual Capitalist

20 Sep 2023

With the rise of oil prices, there is currently a revival of the "commodities super-cycle thesis"...

Source: J-C Parets

20 Sep 2023

Since the June bottom, crude oil, uranium, sugar and orange juice are up 20-30%. Is the risk of a second wave increasing?

Source: The Macro Guy

14 Sep 2023

This chart from Bloomberg shows the massive supply shortfall oil markets will face next quarter

OPEC expects a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels per day. If OPEC is correct, it would result in the biggest inventory drawdown since 2007. Voluntary production cuts by OPEC members are removing 1.3 million additional barrels of oil supply every day. Higher oil prices are back and the US reserves are at record lows. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter

14 Sep 2023

What powered the world in 2022

Source: Elements

13 Sep 2023

OIL PANIC?

As shown on the chart below (courtesy of TME), big golden crosses can lead to much bigger outsized oil moves than what we are seeing now… This is becoming problematic for equity markets. As explained by Goldman, "rallying rates and commodities are derailing the goldilocks soft landing scenario. The uncomfortable combination of rallying oil and US long end breaking up is disrupting this equilibrium and triggering a rotation into the “persisting inflation & sticky rates” narrative, adding pressure on equities and valuations". (GS sales desk)

11 Sep 2023

With a supply deficit of more than 2.5mn barrels a day through Q4, it is probable that Biden administration will not draw on the SPR so far ahead of the actual election date

Especially given the fact that SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are already running low. It seems more plausible that Joe Biden will concentrate the SPR ammunition around Q2-Q4 next year. This creates another supply risk in the short-run for the oil market Source: Andreas Steno

11 Sep 2023

Is oil once again becoming a political commodity: Russia and Saudi Arabia are cutting oil production at the worst time for the Biden administration (hint: next year is an election year in the US)

Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

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