Syz the moment

the risk of being removed from major stock indexes like the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100, according to JPMorgan analysts. Such exclusions could trigger up to $2.8B in outflows from MSCI-linked funds alone and threaten nearly $9B of passive exposure tied to the company. A decision is expected by January 15, 2026. The threat strikes at the core of Strategy’s identity. The firm became a mainstream proxy for bitcoin by issuing stock to buy bitcoin, then using rising BTC prices to fuel more issuance and accumulation. At one point, the company traded at a large premium above its Bitcoin reserves — but that premium has now evaporated, reflecting weaker investor conviction. MSCI is reconsidering its index rules, proposing to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, classifying them more like investment funds. This puts Strategy directly in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s share price have plunged, with the stock down more than 60% from its peak and Bitcoin down over 30% from its recent high—breaking the feedback loop that once boosted Strategy’s valuation with each BTC purchase. Its equity now trades only slightly above the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Despite the pressure, Saylor continues aggressively buying Bitcoin—adding 8,178 BTC this week, bringing total holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Kraken has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking an official request to offer common stock in an initial public offering. The number of shares on offer and the price of the initial stock offering has yet to be determined. According to a Nov. 19 blog post on the Kraken website, the IPO is expected to occur after the SEC completes its review process. Ahead of the firm’s Form S-1 filing announcement, Kraken also announced the successful completion of an $800 million fundraising effort across tranches. The first, led by institutional investors including Jane Street, DRW Venture Capital, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management, and Tribe Capital, also included a significant commitment from Kraken Co-CEO Arjun Sethi’s family. Meanwhile, the second tranche involved a subsequent $200 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities and, according to a Nov. 18 press release, was executed at a $20 billion valuation. Citadel Securities will also provide Kraken with differentiated liquidity provision, risk management expertise, and market structure insights. Source: yahoo!finance

Indeed, 95% of bitcoin $BTC held by short-term holders, those who bought less than 155 days ago, is underwater. Even with two 30% drawdowns this cycle, the speed and severity of the current drawdown have made it much more severe. Source: Joe Consorti, Frank @FrankAFetter

Source: Source: Christophe Barraud @C_Barraud Bloomberg

Bitcoin's sentiment is at the LOWEST level in over a year. The last 4 times this happened, Bitcoin bounced immediately. $BTC Source: Subu Trade

~815K BTC sold in the past 30 days, the highest level since Jan 2024. With demand contracting, this sell-side pressure is weighing on the price Source: cryptoquant

Each cross marked a local bottom: • September '23 • September '24 • April '25 If BTC is still in a bull market, the local bottom is forming. Holding $100,000 remains crucial. Source: Joe Consorti, Bloomberg

And nobody’s talking about it. Tether & Circle now hold $200B+ in U.S. Treasuries, earning $15B/year in interest — while moving $10 TRILLION across a system Wall Street can’t even see. Every stablecoin = a Treasury bond purchased. Every transaction = U.S. dollar dominance extended. Latin America runs on USD stables. The Middle East moves crisis liquidity through them. Corporates slash cross-border costs 70% — no banks, no permission, no friction. Welcome to the Eurodollar 2.0 era: faster, traceable, and Congress-approved. 📊 The numbers don’t lie: $1.5T Treasury demand by 2027 $50B+ in annual U.S. debt savings 55% growth in ten months 1-second settlement Meanwhile… China’s digital yuan? still not there. Where could we be heading by 2028? 💵 $2T in circulation? 🌍 25% of global remittances? 🏦 Trillions in tokenized assets? 🔗 A fully re-plumbed global financial system? The U.S. Dollar went digital — and didn’t even ask permission. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86 on X