Syz the moment

Source: Sam Callahan @samcallah FT

Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge

Nice chart showing what's launched and what's on deck from @JSeyff Source: Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence

For weeks, everyone kept asking: “Why did the market nuke on Oct 10 with ZERO news?” A thread on X by Bull Theory explains why it happened and how it changes the whole narrative. 1️⃣ MSCI quietly triggered a structural panic On the same evening the crash began, MSCI released a consultation note almost nobody in crypto saw. Their proposal: If a company holds 50%+ of its assets in Bitcoin/digital assets AND behaves like a digital-asset treasury… 👉 it can be excluded from MSCI global indexes. Translation? MicroStrategy and other BTC-heavy companies were suddenly at risk. 2️⃣ Why this is a big deal If MSCI excludes them: • Index funds must sell — instantly No debating. No picking. Pure forced liquidation. • MicroStrategy becomes a target If $MSTR is treated as “fund-like,” indexed funds would be required to reduce or exit. • And when MSTR sells → Bitcoin feels it immediately Weakness in MSTR = lower confidence = higher BTC correlation = more retail panic = liquidation wave. 3️⃣ The Oct 10 cascade suddenly makes sense The market was already fragile: Trump tariffs, a weak Nasdaq, overcrowded BTC leverage, cycle-top fear. MSCI’s note added a new fear: 👉 “If index funds dump MSTR, BTC could get hit next.” That was enough to trigger one of the largest liquidation waves in crypto history. 4️⃣ Then JPMorgan poured gasoline on the fire Three days ago, JPMorgan dropped a bearish note echoing the same MSCI risk — right when: • MSTR weak • BTC weak • Liquidity thin • Sentiment fragile A classic Wall Street playbook: Bearish at the bottom. Bullish at the top. Never random. 5️⃣ Saylor finally enters the chat As fear peaked, Saylor publicly clarified: “We are NOT a fund. We are an operating software company with an innovative Bitcoin treasury strategy.” He highlighted new credit products, ongoing software revenue, and billions in structured instrument issuance. Message received: 👉 MicroStrategy ≠ passive BTC holder. 👉 Index labels don’t define innovation. 6️⃣ What this means going forward ✔ The Oct 10 crash wasn’t random — it aligns perfectly with MSCI’s announcement. ✔ Forced-selling fears created a liquidity shock. ✔ JPMorgan amplified it at the worst possible moment. ✔ Saylor restored confidence, but… ✔ Final MSCI decision comes January 15, 2026. Volatility until then? Highly likely. 🔍 Final Take Oct 10 wasn’t a fundamental breakdown. It was a structural shock hitting a fragile market — and institutions used it to shape sentiment. But the long-term picture hasn’t changed: • Bitcoin adoption strong • Corporate interest rising • Saylor building • Institutions accumulating • ETFs stabilizing • Liquidity cycles returning MSCI isn’t stopping Bitcoin. It just created volatility that smart money is already exploiting. Source: Bull Theory @BullTheoryio zerohedge

While retail panic-sold the dip, something very different was happening under the surface. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1,000+ BTC just went vertical. That’s ~$91 million per wallet. Translation? Short-term hands are handing their coins straight into the pockets of deep-pocketed, long-duration buyers. And yes — they know exactly what they’re doing. Markets have been jittery: • Rate-cut uncertainty 📉 • Overheated AI equity spending 🤖 • The classic “crypto cycle fear” 😬 Sentiment gauges? Extreme fear. Long-term capital? Completely unfazed. Case in point: Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund reportedly tripled its BTC exposure last quarter — now sitting near $500M. These aren’t tourists. They’re the ones who buy when everyone else hesitates. So if you’re selling your Bitcoin today… You might want to take a closer look at who’s on the other side of your trade. Now zoom out 👇 Global liquidity is sitting at record highs — and still expanding. Over 80% of major economies are easing or injecting capital again. Crypto regulation is finally becoming clearer. Historically, when: ✅ Liquidity rises + ✅ Policy clarity improves → Risk assets rally. → Crypto rallies the most. Will it happen again this time? Source: Bitwise, Tommy Rogulj @tommyrogulj

Source: www.zerohedge.com

the risk of being removed from major stock indexes like the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100, according to JPMorgan analysts. Such exclusions could trigger up to $2.8B in outflows from MSCI-linked funds alone and threaten nearly $9B of passive exposure tied to the company. A decision is expected by January 15, 2026. The threat strikes at the core of Strategy’s identity. The firm became a mainstream proxy for bitcoin by issuing stock to buy bitcoin, then using rising BTC prices to fuel more issuance and accumulation. At one point, the company traded at a large premium above its Bitcoin reserves — but that premium has now evaporated, reflecting weaker investor conviction. MSCI is reconsidering its index rules, proposing to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, classifying them more like investment funds. This puts Strategy directly in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s share price have plunged, with the stock down more than 60% from its peak and Bitcoin down over 30% from its recent high—breaking the feedback loop that once boosted Strategy’s valuation with each BTC purchase. Its equity now trades only slightly above the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Despite the pressure, Saylor continues aggressively buying Bitcoin—adding 8,178 BTC this week, bringing total holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Kraken has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking an official request to offer common stock in an initial public offering. The number of shares on offer and the price of the initial stock offering has yet to be determined. According to a Nov. 19 blog post on the Kraken website, the IPO is expected to occur after the SEC completes its review process. Ahead of the firm’s Form S-1 filing announcement, Kraken also announced the successful completion of an $800 million fundraising effort across tranches. The first, led by institutional investors including Jane Street, DRW Venture Capital, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management, and Tribe Capital, also included a significant commitment from Kraken Co-CEO Arjun Sethi’s family. Meanwhile, the second tranche involved a subsequent $200 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities and, according to a Nov. 18 press release, was executed at a $20 billion valuation. Citadel Securities will also provide Kraken with differentiated liquidity provision, risk management expertise, and market structure insights. Source: yahoo!finance