Syz the moment

While retail panic-sold the dip, something very different was happening under the surface. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1,000+ BTC just went vertical. That’s ~$91 million per wallet. Translation? Short-term hands are handing their coins straight into the pockets of deep-pocketed, long-duration buyers. And yes — they know exactly what they’re doing. Markets have been jittery: • Rate-cut uncertainty 📉 • Overheated AI equity spending 🤖 • The classic “crypto cycle fear” 😬 Sentiment gauges? Extreme fear. Long-term capital? Completely unfazed. Case in point: Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund reportedly tripled its BTC exposure last quarter — now sitting near $500M. These aren’t tourists. They’re the ones who buy when everyone else hesitates. So if you’re selling your Bitcoin today… You might want to take a closer look at who’s on the other side of your trade. Now zoom out 👇 Global liquidity is sitting at record highs — and still expanding. Over 80% of major economies are easing or injecting capital again. Crypto regulation is finally becoming clearer. Historically, when: ✅ Liquidity rises + ✅ Policy clarity improves → Risk assets rally. → Crypto rallies the most. Will it happen again this time? Source: Bitwise, Tommy Rogulj @tommyrogulj

Source: www.zerohedge.com

the risk of being removed from major stock indexes like the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100, according to JPMorgan analysts. Such exclusions could trigger up to $2.8B in outflows from MSCI-linked funds alone and threaten nearly $9B of passive exposure tied to the company. A decision is expected by January 15, 2026. The threat strikes at the core of Strategy’s identity. The firm became a mainstream proxy for bitcoin by issuing stock to buy bitcoin, then using rising BTC prices to fuel more issuance and accumulation. At one point, the company traded at a large premium above its Bitcoin reserves — but that premium has now evaporated, reflecting weaker investor conviction. MSCI is reconsidering its index rules, proposing to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, classifying them more like investment funds. This puts Strategy directly in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s share price have plunged, with the stock down more than 60% from its peak and Bitcoin down over 30% from its recent high—breaking the feedback loop that once boosted Strategy’s valuation with each BTC purchase. Its equity now trades only slightly above the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Despite the pressure, Saylor continues aggressively buying Bitcoin—adding 8,178 BTC this week, bringing total holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Kraken has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking an official request to offer common stock in an initial public offering. The number of shares on offer and the price of the initial stock offering has yet to be determined. According to a Nov. 19 blog post on the Kraken website, the IPO is expected to occur after the SEC completes its review process. Ahead of the firm’s Form S-1 filing announcement, Kraken also announced the successful completion of an $800 million fundraising effort across tranches. The first, led by institutional investors including Jane Street, DRW Venture Capital, HSG, Oppenheimer Alternative Investment Management, and Tribe Capital, also included a significant commitment from Kraken Co-CEO Arjun Sethi’s family. Meanwhile, the second tranche involved a subsequent $200 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities and, according to a Nov. 18 press release, was executed at a $20 billion valuation. Citadel Securities will also provide Kraken with differentiated liquidity provision, risk management expertise, and market structure insights. Source: yahoo!finance

Indeed, 95% of bitcoin $BTC held by short-term holders, those who bought less than 155 days ago, is underwater. Even with two 30% drawdowns this cycle, the speed and severity of the current drawdown have made it much more severe. Source: Joe Consorti, Frank @FrankAFetter

Source: Source: Christophe Barraud @C_Barraud Bloomberg

Bitcoin's sentiment is at the LOWEST level in over a year. The last 4 times this happened, Bitcoin bounced immediately. $BTC Source: Subu Trade

~815K BTC sold in the past 30 days, the highest level since Jan 2024. With demand contracting, this sell-side pressure is weighing on the price Source: cryptoquant