Since the start of 2026, the S&P 500 has risen by +8%, consensus forward 12-month EPS estimates have risen by +13%, and the P/E multiple has declined from 22x to 21x.
Source: Neil Sethi, Goldman Sachs
Upward revisions to earnings, which have been very sharp, have come mostly from AI infrastructure stocks where growth is very strong.
Source: Lance Roberts, Goldman Sachs, The Daily Shot
320 companies out of the S&P500 have reported earnings this season.
Of the 320, the average earnings surprise has been 20% so far, the US seeing the biggest beats in years. Source: Bloomberg, Negligible Capital
Factset notes that Mag-7 GAAP earnings growth for Q1 is now expected to come in at an astounding +61.0% up from 22.4% at the end of the quarter
(March 31st) with 4 of the top 5 contributors to SPX earnings growth coming from this cohort (Alphabet, NVIDIA, Amazon and Meta, the other is Micron) That said, Factset notes that the three of those who have reported though each were boosted by one-time non-cash items: "The (GAAP) EPS actual for Alphabet for Q1 2026 included a net gain of $37.7 billion primarily due to net unrealized gains on non-marketable equity securities. The (GAAP) EPS actual for Amazon.com for Q1 2026 included pre-tax gains of $16.8 billion included in non-operating income from investments in Anthropic. The (GAAP) EPS actual for Meta Platforms for Q1 2026 included an $8.03 billion income tax benefit." Source: Factset, Neil Sethi
The "MAGNIFICENT 7" just reported the biggest revenue surge in stock market history.
Google nearly doubled what Wall Street expected. EPS came in at $5.11 against an estimate of $2.63, a 94% beat. Revenue hit $109 billion against an estimate of $107 billion. $GOOG jumped 7% and hit a new all time high. Microsoft beat every expectation. EPS of $4.27 against an estimate of $4.06. Revenue of $82 billion against an estimate of $81 billion. $MSFT gained 5%. Amazon had one of the biggest EPS beats of any company its size in years. EPS of $2.78 against an estimate of $1.64, a 70% beat. Revenue of $181 billion against an estimate of $177 billion. $AMZN dropped 7% immediately after the report and then fully recovered to close up 4%. Meta beat every single number Wall Street had. EPS of $10.4 against an estimate of $6.82, a 52% beat. Revenue of $56 billion against an estimate of $55 billion. $META dropped 7% anyway. Source: Bull Theory
42% of the S&P 500 companies report earnings this week
Source: zerohedge, BofA
TESLA $TSLA JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
EPS of $0.41 beating expectations of $0.34 Revenue of $22.4B missing expectations of $22.64 Tesla says Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026 Once in production, expect Cybercab to begin to replace existing Model Y fleet and will be largest volume vehicle in fleet over time Preparations for first large-scale Optimus factory will begin in Q2 Are expanding scope of manufacturing to include semiconductor fabrication in AI inference compute Source: Evan on X
S&P 500 12 month forward earnings are going to the roof...
Below, an interesting Bloomberg chart showing the difference between forward 12 months EPS estimates and trailing 12 month EPS Source: Bloomberg
