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ASML just dropped their Q4-25 earnings, and the market is absolutely electric. ⚡️
Shares jumped 7%, and it’s not hard to see why. While the world was debating an "AI bubble," ASML’s customers just placed a record-breaking bet on the future. The headline? A massive demand explosion. 🚀 The Numbers You Need to Know: Net Bookings: €13.2B (Massive beat vs. €7B estimate). The demand isn't just there; it’s doubling expectations. Revenue: €9.7B (Beating the €9.58B estimate). Backlog: A staggering €38.8B. ASML has years of work already sold. 2026 Guidance: Revenue projected between €34B - €39B (Top end well above the €35B consensus). The "AI Realism" Shift 🧠 CEO Christophe Fouquet’s statement is the real kicker. He noted a "notably more positive assessment" from customers regarding the sustainability of AI-related demand. This isn't hype. This is capacity planning. This is the "picks and shovels" of the AI revolution being bolted into factories right now. Two High NA systems (the most complex machines humans have ever built) were officially recognized in Q4 revenue. The future is being shipped. Shareholder Value 💰 ASML isn't just growing; they are rewarding. A new €12B share buyback program through 2028 shows massive confidence in their long-term cash flow. The Verdict: ASML remains the ultimate bottleneck of the digital age. If you want AI, you need chips. If you want chips, you need ASML. Period. Is the semi-cycle just getting a second wind? 🌬️ Below the numbers and breakdown by App Economy Insights @EconomyApp · $ASML ASML Q4 FY25: • Net bookings €13.2B (€6.9B beat). • Net sales +5% Y/Y to €9.7B (€0.1B beat). • Gross margin 52% (+0pp Y/Y). • Operating margin 35% (-1pp Y/Y). • EPS €7.35 (€0.23 miss). • FY26 Net sales ~€36.5B (€1.4B beat).
THE MASTER EARNINGS CALENDAR
Here are the most popular stocks that report earnings this week January 26th - January 30th Source: Earnings Hub
Q4 earnings season officially kicks off yesterday.
Source: Brew markets
ORACLE $ORCL: We now expect fiscal 2026 CapEx will be about 15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1.
Source: Wall St Engine @wallstengine
This chart will get soon updated
Wall ST is expecting Nvidia $NVDA to report revenue of $54.9 Billion tomorrow up from $35.1B in the same quarter last year Source: Wolf, https://lnkd.in/enK2fikS
Buybacks are back...
"Goldman estimates over $6B worth of stock buyback vwap demand for each November trading day" Source: zerohedge
US corporate earnings growth is booming:
S&P 500 quarterly earnings growth is up to +18% YoY in Q3 2025, the highest since Q3 2021. Excluding the post-pandemic recovery, this marks the strongest growth since 2018. This comes as 6 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors reported positive average EPS growth in Q3, a material improvement from just 2 sectors in Q2. Additionally, median profit growth in the Russell 3000 index hit +11% YoY, the highest since Q3 2021 and up from +6% in Q2. Overall, the frequency of earnings beats is now among the highest on record. Earnings momentum is incredibly strong. Source: FT, Global Markets Investor
A week ago, S&P 500 Q3 earnings were up 10.7% YoY.
Today is it 13.0%. Earnings continue to drive this bull market. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Carson
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