Key Events This Week
1. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday 2. crudeoil Inventories - Wednesday 3. December CPI Inflation data - Thursday (Crucial data ahead of the January Fed meeting). 4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday 5. December PPI Inflation data - Friday 6. Total of 4 Fed Members Speak 7. Earning season Kick-off with some big banks publishing on Friday - see below Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Earnings Whispers
A widening gulf in earnings power between Tech and the rest of the S&P 500
Chart below shows how 2024 earnings expectations for the mega-cap tech and the rest of tech and rest of S&P 500 have been evolving throughout 2023. Source: Barclays, The Market Ear
Nike sinks 10% after it slashes sales outlook, unveils $2 billion in cost cuts
Nike on Thursday unveiled plans to cut costs by about $2 billion over the next three years as it lowered its sales outlook. Nike now expects full-year reported revenue to grow approximately 1%, compared to a prior outlook of up mid-single digits. In the current quarter, which includes the second half of the holiday shopping season, Nike expects reported revenue to be slightly negative as it laps tough prior year comparisons, and sales to be up low single digits in the fourth quarter. Below details by App Economy Insigths: $NKE Nike Q2 FY24 (ending Nov. 2023). • Revenue +1% Y/Y to $13.4B ($40M miss). • EPS $1.03 ($0.18 beat). • Inventory -14% Y/Y to $8.0B. • Direct sales +6% Y/Y to $5.7B. • New restructuring to cost ~$0.4B. • FY24 revised revenue outlook +1% Y/Y. Source: App Economy Insigths, CNBC
Steno Research -> Big miss from FedEx leading to a >10% nosedive in the stock price
FedEx is the economy and air freight was particularly disappointing here Given the strong correlation between FedEx and the cyclical economy, this speaks against expecting a strong comeback in 2024 Source: Steno Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
Earnings should return to growth in 2024 across all major global markets after a difficult 2023, led by emerging markets
All major regions are on track for earnings declines in 2023, creating easy comparisons for 2024. Source: Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg
The P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is currently 21.3, with a multiple expansion of 9% in 2023
The average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 since 1989 is 19.2. Source: Charlie Bilello
Nvidia quarterly report lifts earnings estimates support for mega-cap tech valuations, i.e nvdia / "mag 7" are trading cheaper AFTER Nvidia blowout results
Source: Macrobond, TME
$NVDA Q3'24 Highlights
"NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off" – Co-founder & CEO, Jensen Huang Revenue +206% *Data Center +279% *Gaming +81% *Professional Vis. +108% *Automotive +4% EBIT +1,633% *marg. 64% (26%) EPS +1,274% Source: Quartr
