Interesting chart by Guilherme Tavares i3 invest ➡️ when the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 gets too low (below -0.5), the Nasdaq 100 usually experiences a much deeper drawdown.
It is not necessarily a timing indicator or a “sell everything” signal. But it shows that BTC is more sensitive to liquidity and tends to lead.
Same same? Are we just seeing "psychology on steroids" being washed out?
All these ex hot assets have moved in close tandem for a long time. Chart below shows Bitcoin $BTC, Nvidia $NVDA and Orcale $ORCL. Source: LSEG, The Market Ear
DB's chart of the day tracks 23 AI-related stocks, comparing year-to-date performance up to 29 October with returns over the roughly six weeks since.
Before 29 October, just one stock was down on the year and the group had posted an average unweighted gain of +70%; since then, the picture has shifted sharply, with 20 of the 23 now trading lower. Source: DB, The Market Ear
2026 is expected to be the year of BIG IPOs.
See below a nice chart from @YahooFinance on some huge IPOs expected next year. Source: Ryan Detrick
Oracle and its peers... earnings versus debt
(based on last available financial quarter) Source: Bloomberg
🗓️ A Look Back at the Dot-Com Bubble's Aftermath
For those unfamiliar with the late-1990s internet bubble that burst in March 2000: the pain was initially confined. As Peter Berezin of BCA Research highlighted, non-technology stocks continued their ascent for a full year before the broader market succumbed to the 2001 recession. Is this history set to repeat, ushering in another "great rotation" in the coming months?
We are running into the 4th and 5th best 2-weeks periods.
And they happen to be back-to-back... Source: Goldman Sachs, isabelnet, RBC
🤯 The Hidden Engine Powering the US Economy
Everyone is talking about interest rates and inflation, but here’s the underappreciated truth: The average US household’s net worth has silently exploded thanks to unbelievable equity returns over the last five years. 📈 That extra few hundred dollars on discretionary spending? It’s mentally offset by a stock portfolio that's sitting significantly higher. The Takeaway: This "wealth effect" isn't just a coincidence, it's likely among the reasons why the long-predicted recession keeps failing to materialize. When people feel richer, they spend! Source: Boring_Business @BoringBiz_
