AI Race To Return On Investment
Only **Amazon** is expected to generate a positive return on its massive AI capex through 2030 — even under the most generous assumptions (zero costs). Microsoft: -9.2% Alphabet: -15.7% Meta: -28.8% Oracle: -35.6% The AI arms race is getting expensive. Source: FT BraVoCycles Newsletter
This market is all about tech. That goes for US as well as global markets.
Source: UBS, TME
Without AI, this market rally would look far less impressive.
$640 billion has been wiped out from Nvidia's market cap over the same period. Huawei's new chip architecture is now directly challenging the hardware scarcity narrative that supported Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation. Source: Bull Theory
SNOWFLAKE $SNOW STRIKES $6 BILLION DEAL WITH AMAZON $AMZN FOR AGENTIC COMPUTING CHIPS
$SNOW +27% IN AFTER-HOURS Q1 Adj EPS: $0.39 vs $0.32 est Q1 REV: $1.391B vs $1.324B est Source: Trend Spider
OpenAI and Anthropic are effectively telling the market they can't solve every problem with a generic AI coworker.
You don't pour billions into massive forward-deployed joint ventures if you think the next model release is going to take care of it. In the cloud supercycle, semis led and software followed (and you didn't need Qualcomm or ARM to tell you the value was migrating up the stack). In AI, the infra layer itself is telling us the application layer is a separate, massive opportunity they can't fully capture. Source: a16z @a16z
Nvidia has officially entered correction territory after dumping -11.30% in just 8 trading sessions.
$640 billion has been wiped out from Nvidia's market cap over the same period. Huawei's new chip architecture is now directly challenging the hardware scarcity narrative that supported Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation. Source: Bull Theory
By looking at the 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝟭𝟬 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 what do you observe?
1985–2005: Three decades belonged to Manufacturing & Production. 2015: One decade belonged to the IT revolution. 2025: We are entering the Super Decade of AI. Source: niveshak
Surprise surprise... The Magnificent 7 have underperformed the S&P 500 market-cap and equal-weight indexes this year.
That pushes back on the narrative that the bull market is top-heavy. Breadth continues to expand and the rally isn't as fragile as the bears say. Source: Phil Rosen
