S&P 500 $SPX is back at highs, but the character of the move is shifting.
What began as forced buying is now turning into chasing, with vols firming and positioning getting crowded again. This is where things get more complicated. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
The underperformance in "secular growth stocks" according to Goldman "has reflected a sharp contraction in valuation multiples.
Since the peak in broad US equity market valuation multiples in October 2025, valuations for companies with high expected sales growth have de-rated sharply. The forward P/E for median Rule of 10 secular growth stock has declined from 36x in October 2025 to 27x, which ranks in just the 35th percentile since 2010." Source: Goldman Sachs, Neil Sethi
CTAs are projected to buy stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO over the next week, up to a total of $44 Billion 🥳🤯👀📈
Source: Barchart
It's not surprising to see the S&P 500 back within 1% of all-time highs.
The Iran conflict turned so many investors bearish but the rebound was inevitable. The S&P 500 is up 14.2% on average after a geopolitical shock dating back to the Korean War. Source: Phil Rosen
Inverse Panic !
S&P500 $SPX is not far from range highs post the epic squeeze. SPX futures are nearing the 7k level, with range highs just above. Downside panic has flipped into upside chasing, while vols have reset to pre-war levels. Chart 2 (SPX vs. VIX, inverted) shows the gap has narrowed materially from peak panic. Source: TME
$SAP, a German software company, is down -50% from its all-time high.
Source: Hedgeye
The S&P 500 has closed green on the year for the first time in 27 trading days.
That looks to me like V-shape... $SPY Source: Trend Spider
Talking about a K-shape economy...
The gap between Wall Street and Main Street has never been bigger: ➡️ Main Street: US consumer sentiment is down to 47.6 points, the lowest level in history. ➡️Wall Street: the S&P 500 is trading just 3% from its all-time high. ⚠️ Since the 2020 pandemic, consumer sentiment has fallen -50%. During the same period, the S&P 500 has rallied +205%. This comes as inflation, rising housing costs, and a weakening job market are increasingly squeezing the average American household. Meanwhile, 87% of all equities are held by the wealthiest 10% of households. Asset owners are the biggest winners in this economy. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, zerohedge
